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코로노믹스: 복잡계 네트워크의 자기조직화 현상

Coronomics: Self-Organization Phenomenon in Complex Network

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주제분류경제학

초록

자연재해, 경제현상 등 다양한 분야에서 편중된 분포의 양상이 목격되며, 수도권에편중된 코로나 확진자 발생 패턴 또한 이와 무관치 않아 보인다. 하지만 정규분포를가정하는 전통적인 경제학 접근은 이를 설명하는 데 한계를 가진다. 본 연구는 코로나 확진자 발생 패턴을 복잡계 네트워크의 관점에서 조명하고 동시에 사회적 거리두기 정책효과의 불확실성을 규명하고자 하였다. 분석결과, 코로나 확진자수 분포는인구분포보다 두꺼운 꼬리를 가진 스케일프리 네트워크 기반의 멱함수 분포를 보이며, 인구분포 이상의 휘발성이 존재함을 발견하였다. 또한 수도권 같은 인구밀집 지역에서는 대규모 네트워크의 자기조직화 메커니즘으로 인해 코로나 확산을 통제하기 위한 거리두기 정책효과의 제약이 있음을 확인하였다. 이상의 결과는 현대경제사회시스템을 이해하기 위해 복잡계 네트워크 관점에서의 접근이 필요함을 시사한다.

Abstract

The skewed distribution has been observed in natural disaster, economy, and so on. The current high proportion of the COVID-19 confirmed cases in the Seoul Metropolitan Area seems to be its another case. The standard economics fails to explain them since it mainly assumes the normal distribution. Thus, this paper attempts to examine the pattern of COVID-19 cases occurrence in the framework of complex network and explore the uncertain effect of the social distancing policy. The results showed the distribution of COVID-19 cases followed a power law distribution with a fatter tail than the population distribution. Also we confirmed that the social distancing policy has a limited effect in the high population density area like Seoul Metropolitan Area because of the self-organization mechanism of large-scale network. This study implies that the complex network approach is necessary to better understand the contemporary socioeconomic system.

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