`조건에 기초한` 전시 작전통제권 전환 결정요인 연구 - 정책변동이론의 ACMS모형을 중심으로 -

Abstract

This study examined the `condition-based` wartime operational control transition policy of Park Geun-hye government applying ACMS model which combines Sabatier`s Advocacy Coalition Framework(ACF) model with Kingdon`s Multiple Stream Framework(MSF) model among the policy change theories and models. This study I found that the environmental factor among the independent variables which include domestic elements(transition capability, defense reform, defense budget of ROK Army) and international elements(nK, US, Japan) influenced ROK and US to decide the `condition-based` wartime operational control transition policy. ROK and U.S. sharing democracy system based on the free market economy had the same value about the nK`s unpredictable provocation and the possibility to jeopardize the wartime operational control transition policy. The political issues such as the inauguration of the president Park, launching long range missile and the 3rd nuclear test of nK asked for the change of wartime operational control transition policy. The trigger mechanism was the 3rd nuclear test of nK, and the entrepreneurs were president, staffs for the president, and the minister of MND. The type of policy change was policy maintenance style according to the theory of Hogwood. This study presents that ACMS model is very useful to analyze the `condition-based` wartime operational control transition policy Other finding of this study is that ACMS model is also useful in order to analyze the international level between ROK and US. To consider more influential factors such as the situational awareness of the president, public opinion, media, and national assembly is recommended for further research. In addition, it could be more practical and detailed analysis if the military specialists and field working group are included.