전작권 전환정책 변동요인 분석

Abstract

On June 25, 1950, following the outbreak of the war in Invasion from North Korea, the United Nations established the United States-led U.N. Command and delegated the appointment of commander to the U.S. On June 27, U.S. and other U.N. forces entered the war, and on July 14, the operational command over the South Korean military has been transferred to the commander of the U.N. This was the beginning of the transition of wartime operational control(hereinafter referred to as wartime OPCON), and after the truce, the policy of transferring wartime OPCON back to our military brought about different policy changes such as 『policy transition – policy period postponement – Re-postponement by suggesting policy conditions – (Goals for) policy transition within the term』 for each government. With different policy results from each government, the research questions I raised are 'What are the variable factors in the transition policy of wartime OPCON?', 'What is the key variable factor?' and 'Why is the policy in progress without termination?'. Based on these, I analyzed the main factors influencing the change in policy decisions through a review of cases of policy changes. In other words, first, in terms of security environment factor, the ROK-U.S. alliance, changes in the U.S. military strategy, the state of conflict among neighboring countries, and the level of threat from North Korea, etc. Second, in terms of the political support alliance, major issues include military sovereignty versus military efficiency, South Korean military capability, and defense budget. Third, in terms of policy flow, policy issues are pros and cons for the transition of wartime OPCON by government, alternatives to policy are alternatives to solving the policy issues, and political trends are variable factors such as government ideological propensity(progress or conservative). These factors had a significant impact on the variance in the transition policy of wartime OPCON policy, but the key factor was the ‘government's propensity and leader's perception of the situation.’ Meanwhile, policy characteristics, national survival issues, ROK-U.S. issues and public opinion issues were cited as reasons why the transition policy of wartime OPCON has not been terminated while it has been in the process of policy changes for more than 20 years. As such, this study presents policy implications for policy changes(innovation, maintenance, succession, and termination) and prospects for the transition policy of wartime OPCON, based on the policy change factors of the three governments analyzed in this paper and the Moon Jae In government’s progress.