북한의 대남 회색지대 전략: 개념, 수단 그리고 전망
North Korea's Gray Zone Strategy Against South Korea: Ways, Means, and Prospects
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze ‘Ways’ and ‘Means’ of North Korea’s Gray Zone strategy and to predict the way North Korea does its Gray Zone strategy against South Korea in the future, and to draw up its implications. The necessity of this study can be said to be significant because there are few academic research on North Korea’s Gray Zone strategy against South Korea. Until now, North Korea has been carried out a Gray Zone strategy against South Korea, using the following Means: First, militarily, North Korea is threatening to escalate its provocations against South Korea, imposing coercion by using the boundaries between politics and military, and launching a pre-declared type’s Gray Zone provocations. Second, diplomatically, North Korea is trying to circumvent skillfully the red-line of international sanctions, and create a vicious circle of negotiation and provocation. Third, informationally, North Korea is making provocations that actively utilize the psychology of the Korean people who fear a full-scale war, and conducting cyber provocations and indiscriminated media campaigns. Fourth, economically, North Korea is benefitting from the Gray Zone strategy that repeats cooperation and crisis situations by actively utilizing South Korea policy toward North Korea and inter-economic cooperation, which provides a good political environment to carry out the Gray Zone strategy. North Korea is expected to utilize a Gray Zone strategy through the combination of Military and Diplomatic means (M+D), or the combination of various means in the future. Provocation against Sea Lines of Communications, provocative acts using Islamic militants and ethnic Koreans, and provocative acts using the shadow effects of nuclear weapons, etc., are good cases in point. The implications of this prospect are that: it is necessary for South Korea to rally ‘national will’ to strongly respond to North Korea’s provocations and set up a clear ‘red line.’ Furthermore, it needs to consider corresponding measures to cut off North Korea’s learning effects.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to analyze ‘Ways’ and ‘Means’ of North Korea’s Gray Zone strategy and to predict the way North Korea does its Gray Zone strategy against South Korea in the future, and to draw up its implications. The necessity of this study can be said to be significant because there are few academic research on North Korea’s Gray Zone strategy against South Korea. Until now, North Korea has been carried out a Gray Zone strategy against South Korea, using the following Means: First, militarily, North Korea is threatening to escalate its provocations against South Korea, imposing coercion by using the boundaries between politics and military, and launching a pre-declared type’s Gray Zone provocations. Second, diplomatically, North Korea is trying to circumvent skillfully the red-line of international sanctions, and create a vicious circle of negotiation and provocation. Third, informationally, North Korea is making provocations that actively utilize the psychology of the Korean people who fear a full-scale war, and conducting cyber provocations and indiscriminated media campaigns. Fourth, economically, North Korea is benefitting from the Gray Zone strategy that repeats cooperation and crisis situations by actively utilizing South Korea policy toward North Korea and inter-economic cooperation, which provides a good political environment to carry out the Gray Zone strategy. North Korea is expected to utilize a Gray Zone strategy through the combination of Military and Diplomatic means (M+D), or the combination of various means in the future. Provocation against Sea Lines of Communications, provocative acts using Islamic militants and ethnic Koreans, and provocative acts using the shadow effects of nuclear weapons, etc., are good cases in point. The implications of this prospect are that: it is necessary for South Korea to rally ‘national will’ to strongly respond to North Korea’s provocations and set up a clear ‘red line.’ Furthermore, it needs to consider corresponding measures to cut off North Korea’s learning effects.
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