전쟁 패러다임 변화와 한반도 전쟁에서의 함의; 클라우제비츠의 삼위일체론을 중심으로

Abstract

The paradigm of war has evolved over time throughout the human history. Perspectives with regard to the evolution of war may differ from the different angles. Previous academic endeavors have been centered around the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) in the context of deriving viable national defense policy. The primary focus of this study, however, is placed to shed a fresh light on the paradigm shift in modern warfare at the strategic level. The main conclusion of this study is that the paradigm of warfare has changed along with the attributes of war. This paper strives to provide a potential evidence for the proverbial statement of Carl von Clausewitz that "War is, therefore, not only a true chameleon, because it changes its nature in some degree in each particular case, but it is also, as a whole, in relation to the predominant tendencies." The change in the attributes of war has come into being due to the change in the relative preponderance among the Government, the Military, and the People, the so-called `trinity` of war, in tandem with revolutionary evolution of human civilization and social environment. The paper analyzes how the role and importance of the Government in the dynasty periods, the Commander and the Army in the industrialized nation-state era, and the People in the current globalization and information age have increased with the passage of time in history. This study argues that the change in the principal actor and the center of gravity has brought about the corresponding change in the attributes of war, resulting relevant change in objectives and purposes, thereby triggering cascading effects in transforming methods and means in conducting warfare to accomplish those objectives and purposes. In other words, it is suggested that the paradigm of warfare has shifted throughout the different periods in human history. The study attempts to test the hypothesis that the change in attributes of war has played a role of driving force behind the transformation from `Government Centric Warfare (GCW)` to `Military Centric Warfare (MCW),` and from `Military Centric Warfare (MCW)` to ongoing `People Centric Warfare (PCW)`. The characteristics of paradigm shift in the warfare based upon the main findings in this paper can be summarized as follows. The paradigm of GCW might be defined as organized violent acts to coerce one`s will to serve political interests of the ruler. The paradigm of MCW would be defined as clashes between armed forces in order to coerce one`s will to opposing nations through total mobilization of national power to serve national security interests of the nation. In the context of PCW paradigm, the war could be viewed as confrontation between hostile willingness in which the political entities such as mutually confronting nations or non-government organizations try to force one`s will and intention through exercising direct and indirect influences on the population of opponent nations by employing all available methods of national power as well as various forms of networks with an aim of attaining political purposes. In essence, this paper came to conclusion that the paradigm of warfare has undergone revolutionary shift along with profound change in attributes of warfare mainly due to the development and evolution of human civilization throughout the history. Implications of this paper could be summarized as follows. First, the study argues that the North Korea has been waging the PCW ever since the liberation of Koran peninsula from the brutal Japanese imperial colonial occupation, and the meaning of Korean War should be revisited accordingly. The reason of incessant provocations committed by North Korean can only be understood against the background of its singled-mined intention to bring the ROK and the US into ultimate submission. In this regard, the North Korea is expected to mount the all-out military attacks for conquering the southern half of the peninsula in the second Korean War if it seizes the opportune moment when the division within the ROK society and the weakness in the willingness to fight of the general public are on the path of irreversible deterioration. Second, the ROK needs to fight the PCW for deterring the recurrence of major war, and materializing the reunification of Korean peninsula through decisive counter-attack when deterrence fails. Hence, the paper proposes policy recommendations for strengthening the military capabilities and laying out war-fighting plan by means of applying the paradigm of PCW to national defense policy and military strategy.