러시아의 우크라이나 침공과중앙아시아 국가들의 대응
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Central Asian States’ Response
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초록
한 독립 국가의 주권을 인정하지 않고 선전포고도 없이 타국을 전격적으로 침공, 점령한 후 러시아로 합병하는 방식으로 진행되고 있는 현재 러시아의 우크라이나 침략 전쟁은 구 소련에서 힘겹게 독립하여 국민 국가를 형성 중인 구 소련 구성 공화국들에게 많은 고민을 안겨 주고 있다. 높은 군사안보적 의존도, 에너지를 비롯한 높은 경제적 종속도, 그리고 러시아 거주 자국 국민들의 송금액이 경제에 미치는 막대한 영향에도 불구하고 우크라이나와 같은 운명에 처할 수도 있다는 판단 하에 힘겨운 균형을 유지하려는 모습에 주목할 필요가 있다. 이는 첨예하게 대립하고 있는 강대국들 사이에 위치한 중간 국가라는 유사한 입장에 있는 우리에게도 많은 시사점을 주고 있다. 본 연구는 현재 전쟁이 진행 중이라는 한계와 한정된 자료 내에서 향후 중앙아시아 국가들의 대 러시아 관계 변화를 기초적 수준에서나마 가늠해 보고자 한다.
Abstract
Russia’s war on Ukraine, which is being carried out in a way that does not recognize the sovereignty of an independent state, invades and occupies another country without a declaration of war, and then annexes it into Russia. It is causing a lot of trouble for the constituent republics of the former Soviet Union. It is worth noting that it is trying to maintain a difficult balance, considering that it may face the same fate as Ukraine, despite its high military and security dependence, high economic dependence including energy, and the huge economic impact of the remittances of its citizens residing in Russia. This has many implications for us, who are in a similar position as a middle country located between powerful powers that are in sharp opposition. This study intends to estimate, at a basic level, the changes in Central Asian countries’ relations with Russia in the future within the limitations of the current war and limited data.
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