우크라이나 전쟁의 중앙아시아 지역 경제안보에 대한 영향 연구

Abstract

The influence of the war in Ukraine is spreading across the globe. There are crises in energy, food supplies, and transportation networks. The Central Asian region is no exception. This article examined the economic security of Central Asia after the war from the macroeconomic aspect and from the supply chain of resources. Immediately after the war, there was chaos in the financial market, with exchange rates fluctuating rapidly, and there was instability in trade, including the suspension of grain exports from Russia. The high inflation rate continues due to the rise in international prices of energy, grain, and daily necessities, and this is evaluated as a negative factor for the future economic growth of Central Asian countries. Nevertheless, it can be assessed that the Central Asian economy in 2022 was relatively stable. The economic growth rate of the Central Asian region exceeds the world average and the average growth rate of developing countries. From the perspective of the supply chain, trade of Central Asian countries increased in 2022 compared to 2021. This is due to an increase in energy and mineral exports due to the rise in international energy prices. In particular, energy and mineral exports to China increased, and energy, mineral exports to the EU also increased. This trend is expected to continue in 2023. However, transport and logistics networks were negatively affected in central asia. The logistics networks through Russia is experiencing difficulties in central asian countries. These problems will continue in the future as the war prolongs. To ensure a smooth product transportation network in Central Asian countries, a new transportation network that does not pass through Russia is being built.