국내정치 전략으로서의‘유럽연합 국민투표 법안(2015-2016)’: 영국 보수당의 유럽회의주의를 중심으로
Domestic Political Calculations behind the EU Referendum Bill 2015-16: Focusing on Euroscepticism of the UK Conservative Party
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본 논문은 영국의 총리이자 보수당 대표인 데이비드 캐머런이 유럽연합 국민투표법안(2015-16)을 이용해 국내 정치에서의 입지를 강화하려는 시도를 분석한다. 주요자료는 의회 의사록과 언론보도이다. 영국독립당이 유럽회의주의를 강화하며 지지도를 끌어올리고 있는 상황에서 보수당은 유럽문제와 관련한 주도권을 상실하지 않기 위해 노력하고 있다. 보수당은 자유민주당과의 연립정부 시절인 2013년에 최초로 이 법안을 상정했으나 상원의 심의절차를 통과시키지 못한 바 있다. 2015년 총선 승리 이후 보수당이 법안을 다시 상정하자, 법제화에 쉽게 성공할 것이라는 예측이 우세했다. 하지만 최근 캐머런은 보수당 평의원들의 반발과 영국독립당이 주도하는 유럽연합 탈퇴 캠페인에 직면해 법안 내용을 수정하면서 권력기반에 타격을 입었다. 유럽회의주의는 자신의 집권을 도왔지만, 이를 극단적으로 강화시켜 실제로 영국을 유럽연합에서 탈퇴시키는 것은 캐머런 총리가 원하는 바가 아니다. 그는 탈퇴보다는 유럽연합과의 재협상을 강조하고 있지만 유럽연합에 부정적 여론은 계속 강화되어 오히려 영국독립당의 입지가 강화되는 분위기다. 영국독립당이 계속 성장해서 다음 총선에서 보수당의 재집권을 방해한다면 유럽회의주의는 결국 캐머런에게 양날의 검으로 작용할 것이다.
Abstract
This article deals with how David Cameron, Prime Minister of the UK and Leader of the Conservative Party, has attempted to utilize the European Union Referendum Bill 2015-16 to strengthen his power over the Conservative Party and against other major political parties. As the UKIP has recently drawn growing support from the public, stressing their eurosceptic views, the Conservative Party finds it urgent to suggest alternative policies regarding EU affairs. The Conservatives put forward the EU Referendum Bill first in 2013 when they were in the coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, but the Bill failed to pass the Lords stage. As they won the majority of Parliament seats in the general election 2015, the Conservatives submitted the Bill again to the House of Commons. Although the Bill was expected to pass both Houses of Parliament with little difficulty, Cameron has recently faced revolt by the Tory backbench MPs and heavy criticism by various Brexit campaign groups including the UKIP. He is now forced to accept some requests made by the UKIP and avowed Eurosceptics in his Conservative Party. As Euroscepticism helped Cameron become Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, he needs to show his supporters that he still holds Eurosceptic views. As Prime Minister, however, he does not want to withdraw his country from the EU. Although he puts more emphasis on renegotiation with the EU than on Brexit, the public opinion is gradually tilting towards the actual exit from the EU. Under these circumstances the UKIP is likely to gain more support in the next general election regardless of the result of the referendum, which could be a serious threat to the Conservative Party. Consequently, Euroscepticism has become a sword with two blades to Cameron.
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