화폐통합의 정치: 중·동부유럽에서 유로의 채택
The Politics of Monetary Integration: The Choice of Euro in Central and Eastern Europe
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초록
이 연구의 목표는 21세기 유럽연합에 가입한 중·동부유럽의 11개국 중 왜 일부는 단일화폐 유로를 채택했고, 다른 일부는 여전히 자국 화폐를 유지하고 있는지를 설명하는 것이다. 이들 가운데 슬로베니아(2007년), 슬로바키아(2009년), 에스토니아(2011년), 라트비아(2014년), 리투아니아(2015년) 5개국은 유로를 도입한 그룹을 형성한다. 한편 폴란드, 헝가리, 체코, 루마니아, 불가리아, 크로아티아 6개국은 2018년 현재 여전히 자국 화폐를 사용하고 있다. 왜 일부 국가는 가입과 더불어 상당히 빨리 유로를 도입하여 화폐통합에 동참했고, 다른 국가는 14년이 지난 현재까지 여전히 자국 화폐를 고집하고 있는 것인가. 이 연구에서는 이런 채택을 설명하기 위해 우선 인구 규모, 1인당 국민소득, 무역의 유럽 역내 비중 등 가장 기본적인 경제조건을 검토하였다. 다음은 국제정치적 요인으로 역사 속에서 공산권의 경험, 독일과의 관계 등 지정학적 요소들을 살펴보았다. 끝으로는 국내정치적 요소를 신자유주의, 조합주의, 국가능력 등 정치경제체제라는 관점에서 분석하였다. 이 연구에서 가늠한 세 종류의 요인 가운데 국제정치의 지정학적 요소가 가장 설명력이 높다. 다음은 국내 정치경제체제의 성격으로 국제정치의 요인과 조합하면 보완적으로 설명력이 더 강해진다.
Abstract
This article aims at explaining why several new members of the European Union in the 21st century have adopted the euro, and why others have maintained their own national currency. The first group includes Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. As for now, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia still use their national currency. First, I examine the basic economic conditions of the Central and Eastern European new members of the EU: Population, per capita GDP, and intra-EU trade. Then, I discuss the geopolitical factors such as the Soviet experience, or the relationship with Germany from the International Relations perspective. Finally, I analyze the political economy regime – neoliberal, embedded-neoliberal, weak state-neoliberal, or neo-corporatist, - of these countries from the domestic politics perspective. The second group of variables from the international geopolitical perspective provides the most convincing explanation. The third group of domestic political economy regime, combined with the former type of explanation, offers quite satisfactory tool of analysis in this new European politics of monetary integration.
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