중동부유럽국가의 유로존 가입 수출 효과 분석
Effects of Joining Euro Zone by the Central and Eastern European Countries to Their Exports
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초록
본 연구는 통화통합의 중요한 영향으로 수출규모 및 수출산업의 변화 가능성에 주목하고, 최근에 유로존에 가입한 슬로베니아, 슬로바키아, 에스토니아, 라트비아 등 4개국을 대상으로 유로존 가입의 결과 이들 국가에서 유로존으로의 수출 비중이 증가하였는지, 수출산업의 특화도에 어떤 변화가 발생했는지를 분석하였다. 분석 결과 이들 4개국의 유로존 수출 비중이 증가했다는 증거를 찾기 어려웠고, 수출산업의 특화도는 다른 국가들에 비해 상대적으로 증가했음을 알 수 있었다. 유로존 수출 비중의 증가가 나타나지 않은 이유로 비교대상이 되는 다른 중동부유럽국가들에 비해 이들 4개국은 유럽 재정위기 이후 유로존 수출에 유리한 통화 및 환율정책을 사용하지 못한데 원인이 있을 수 있다. 수출산업 특화도의 증가는 유로존 가입 이후 산업내 교역보다 산업간 교역이 상대적으로 더 많았음을 보여주는 것이다.
Abstract
Joining a currency union could cause changes in export volume and export industry structure. To study these effects of currency union, we consider the recent members of Euro zone such as Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia, and Latvia. We analyze whether the proportion of exports to Euro zone increases after joining the Euro zone, and whether there are any changes in the export industry specialization. The empirical results do not show any significant evidence of increase in the proportion of exports to Euro zone. As for the export industry specialization, it increased for the four countries compared to other countries. The reason for insignificant changes in Euro zone exports might be lack of monetary and foreign exchange policies responding to recent European economic crisis after joining the Euro zone. The increase in export industry specialization indicates rising importance of inter-industry trade relative to intra-industry trade in the four country cases.
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