Prospects for Korea’s Defense Value Chain Expansion via Poland as a Hub
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After the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, demand for armaments in Europe rose and European governments intensified supplier diversification. This created a window for the Korean defense industry to expand through Poland, which rapidly increased procurement and industrial cooperation. The literature offers policy arguments and case narratives, yet it lacks a systematic, comparative assessment of how Korean defense value chains could evolve in Europe and under what conditions they would be sustainable. This study applies a foresight-oriented design with horizon scanning, cross-case synthesis, and scenario projection. The dataset contains 196 signals across eight product groups and 20 countries. Poland accounts for 102 signals and shows a predominance of positive sentiment, which indicates centrality in the emerging European ecosystem. The evidence indicates differentiated internationalization rather than a single export template. Interest is concentrated in Europe yet is increasingly global. Three scenario families structure the outlook: a Poland-centered hub parallel to Korea, decentralized diffusion among multiple partners, and a status quo baseline with production concentrated in Korea. Results imply that Korea’s strategic choices concern the balance between regional concentration and broader diversification. The study remains exploratory due to reliance on public signals and the inclusion of soft indicators, which warrant continued monitoring.
Abstract
After the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, demand for armaments in Europe rose and European governments intensified supplier diversification. This created a window for the Korean defense industry to expand through Poland, which rapidly increased procurement and industrial cooperation. The literature offers policy arguments and case narratives, yet it lacks a systematic, comparative assessment of how Korean defense value chains could evolve in Europe and under what conditions they would be sustainable. This study applies a foresight-oriented design with horizon scanning, cross-case synthesis, and scenario projection. The dataset contains 196 signals across eight product groups and 20 countries. Poland accounts for 102 signals and shows a predominance of positive sentiment, which indicates centrality in the emerging European ecosystem. The evidence indicates differentiated internationalization rather than a single export template. Interest is concentrated in Europe yet is increasingly global. Three scenario families structure the outlook: a Poland-centered hub parallel to Korea, decentralized diffusion among multiple partners, and a status quo baseline with production concentrated in Korea. Results imply that Korea’s strategic choices concern the balance between regional concentration and broader diversification. The study remains exploratory due to reliance on public signals and the inclusion of soft indicators, which warrant continued monitoring.