중국의 최고 정치엘리트 변화 연구 : 18차 당대회 전망과 함의

Abstract

The paramount leaders in China usually refer to the nine members of a standing committee who lead the Chinese communist Party. In China where the party-state system is retained, these top political elites have significant influences in the process of change of the country and society. Therefore, the replacement of chief leadership is one the key points that contributes to understanding future development directions and the tendency of policies. The replacement of Chinese top political leadership can be affected by age, tenure, the regulations of term renewing, concurrent position, performance etc. Especially investigating carefully how the distributions of roles in the chief leadership are accomplished in the past 16thand17thCongress of the party can help predicting the composition of the 18t hCongress of the party. Given there are no special political issues happen edat the 17th Political Bureau of Central, some of the 25 members of the 17th Political Bureau of Centra ltend to ge tpromotions as top leaders. Thus through analyzin gthe ages, tenure, regulations of term renewing, performance, roles etc., we can prospect who will be promoted as the top political elites.