韓·中수교 25年 : ‘新常態’시대의 도래

Abstract

Korea-China relations, once hailed as a “miracle of world diplomacy,” have now entered a period of grave crisis. It is of course due to the eruption of “irrational” perceptions and behavior over the deployment of the THAAD (the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense) system in South Korea. Remarkable progress has been achieved in the areas of economic cooperation and social contacts, whereas peninsular peace and stability—the core objectives—have become more complex because of the North Korean nuclear issue. In fact, the conflict over the THAAD could have been anticipated as their ties began with the North Korean factor that is either institutionally or strategically hard to find a consensus between them. In a similar vein, both countries have sought cooperation on easier issues first and solutions on more difficult ones later—that is in the xianyi hounan (先易後難) manner. The crux of the issue is that both Korea and China have not been able to agree upon the North Korean solution; have not established a mechanism for crisis management in the political and security areas; and are now faced with an equation of higher degree that shows no exit. In particular, South Korea must ponder over the fact that the more China rises down the road, the deeper its concern over the balancing between China and the United States. The THAAD controversy, in brief, is just one of many complex issues to come. As it becomes crystal clear that the North Korean and its nuclear problem have inhibited the normal and sound development of Korea-China relations, now is the time for an exchange of candid opinions between them. Both sides should no longer anticipate possible concessions or changes in attitude from the other, thus inflating the controversy. Both countries should also acknowledge the arrival of a new era—a “new normal” (新常態) whose bases are an exchange of candid views and the promotion of practical interests. They call for a qualitative change in their new ties.