위기발생원인 차이에 따른 중국 주택시장 조기경보체제 반응변화 연구

Abstract

As Chinese economy has had a great influence on world economy and world economy has been unstable, stabilization of Chinese economy is closely related to that of world economy. Considering the fact that Chinese housing market is of great importance in Chinese economy, it is expected that occurrence of risk of Chinese housing market will give a big shock to world economy as well as Chinese economy. Therefore, it is necessary that early warning system which is suitable for characteristics of Chinese should be built so that Chinese housing market can be stabilized. Many studies of early warning system for Chinese housing market have been conducted and most of the studies concluded that crises which occurred in Chinese housing market had the same nature. Chinese housing market underwent four crises for 18 years. As far as crises which Chinese housing market underwent is concerned, the crises were caused by a rapid change in demand and when looking closely at the crises, it is found that the nature of demand is somewhat different depending on crises. It is expected that response to early warning system may differ according to cause of occurrence of crises. This study verified a change in forecast by building early warning system based on signal approach model and conducting out of sample test for two crises sections whose causes of occurrence are different. Out of sample test showed that forecast for 2009 crisis which was caused by investment demand was 90 percent. It seems that special situation which was related to 2009 crisis caused the forecast to be accurate. Out of sample test showed that forecast for 2013 housing market crisis which was caused by actual demand was 60 percent. This may be effective forecast for the future. However the forecast is not satisfactory and time of signaling occurrence of crisis is slow compared with a forecast of 2009 crisis. Therefore it is necessary that research on mechanism for occurrence of crisis which is caused by actual demand should be conducted and variables which can reflect occurrence of crisis in advance should be developed in order to cope with a crisis which is related to unstable Chinese housing market.