금융위기가 미친 중국 주택가격의 영향요인 분석
Casual Factors of the China’s House Price Analysis
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China has experienced consistent and rapid economic growth since Opening-up and Reform strategy, in which course the real estate industry has played an important role. The rapid increase of house price in recent years has attracted social concerns. The change of real estate price does not only impact on real estate industry, but also relates to the steady development of national economy and social harmony. Thus, research on house price and its causes has significant meanings. This paper adopts quantitative analysis on causes of house price in China though VAR model. The result of quantitative analysis shows that rate of exchange rates change has the biggest effect on housing sales price among all the factors. However in the other two groups-commercial housing price and commercially residential housing price, exchange rate doesn’t have that strong influence. While extending that time lags, the rate of exchange rate’s change has a stronger effect on both commercial housing price and commercially residential housing price. Based on the conclusions that the rate of exchange rate’s change has the strongest effect on housing sales price and an effect-strengthen trend in commercial housing price and commercially residental housing price, exchange rate will have more significant influence on house price in China. Consequently, for the steady development of house price in the future, this paper recommends the strategy that forecasting and coordinating the scale and effect of foreign investment towards real estate market.
Abstract
China has experienced consistent and rapid economic growth since Opening-up and Reform strategy, in which course the real estate industry has played an important role. The rapid increase of house price in recent years has attracted social concerns. The change of real estate price does not only impact on real estate industry, but also relates to the steady development of national economy and social harmony. Thus, research on house price and its causes has significant meanings. This paper adopts quantitative analysis on causes of house price in China though VAR model. The result of quantitative analysis shows that rate of exchange rates change has the biggest effect on housing sales price among all the factors. However in the other two groups-commercial housing price and commercially residential housing price, exchange rate doesn’t have that strong influence. While extending that time lags, the rate of exchange rate’s change has a stronger effect on both commercial housing price and commercially residential housing price. Based on the conclusions that the rate of exchange rate’s change has the strongest effect on housing sales price and an effect-strengthen trend in commercial housing price and commercially residental housing price, exchange rate will have more significant influence on house price in China. Consequently, for the steady development of house price in the future, this paper recommends the strategy that forecasting and coordinating the scale and effect of foreign investment towards real estate market.
참고문헌 (19)
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