A Power Distribution Shift between the ROK–U.S. and China–DPRK Blocs and Its Impact on Inter-Korean Relations, 1990–2021
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States form alliances with others to increase their influence and power against their opponents. Thus, whether a state has alliances and how much material capabilities they possess affect whether the narrowing power gap will increase or decrease conflicts between states. In other words, rather than focusing only on states, it is important to focus on the power transition between alliance blocs (i.e., alliance transition). While the Republic of Korea (ROK) has established the United States as a military alliance, the United States has numerous allies worldwide. On the other hand, even though the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has few official military allies, it has China behind its back. In this context, this study aims to examine, using statistical analysis, how power distribution between alliance blocs affected inter-Korean relations during the 1990–2021 period. The empirical findings show that a shift in the ROK–U.S. and China–DPRK power distribution in favor of the latter negatively affected inter-Korean relations. A shift in the power distribution between the ROK–U.S. Asian alliance coalition and China–DPRK in the latter’s favor also had a negative effect on the relations between the two Koreas. Expanding the scope of alliance, a power distribution shift between China–DPRK–Russia and the ROK–U.S. Asian allies plus NATO members in the former’s favor had a negative impact on the DPRK–ROK relations. Through empirical research, this study found that having allies (or ally’s allies) and how powerful they are play a key role in shaping relations between two states.
Abstract
States form alliances with others to increase their influence and power against their opponents. Thus, whether a state has alliances and how much material capabilities they possess affect whether the narrowing power gap will increase or decrease conflicts between states. In other words, rather than focusing only on states, it is important to focus on the power transition between alliance blocs (i.e., alliance transition). While the Republic of Korea (ROK) has established the United States as a military alliance, the United States has numerous allies worldwide. On the other hand, even though the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has few official military allies, it has China behind its back. In this context, this study aims to examine, using statistical analysis, how power distribution between alliance blocs affected inter-Korean relations during the 1990–2021 period. The empirical findings show that a shift in the ROK–U.S. and China–DPRK power distribution in favor of the latter negatively affected inter-Korean relations. A shift in the power distribution between the ROK–U.S. Asian alliance coalition and China–DPRK in the latter’s favor also had a negative effect on the relations between the two Koreas. Expanding the scope of alliance, a power distribution shift between China–DPRK–Russia and the ROK–U.S. Asian allies plus NATO members in the former’s favor had a negative impact on the DPRK–ROK relations. Through empirical research, this study found that having allies (or ally’s allies) and how powerful they are play a key role in shaping relations between two states.
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