The Rise and Fall of Inter-Korean Rapprochement: Shock, Leadership Change, Threat Perception and Strategic Calculation
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Rivalries tend to persist, with conflicts frequently unfolding between adversaries. Yet, even the most entrenched rivals can experience periods of rapprochement. This article explores the dynamics behind the ebb and flow of rivalry rapprochement between South Korea and North Korea. I argue that such rapprochement is driven by shifts in threat perceptions and strategic calculations. Rivals recalibrate their behavior as these perceptions and goals evolve—changes that typically require a significant external or internal stimulus. Environmental disruptions, such as shocks or leadership transitions, often serve as catalysts for this recalibration. In three out of four instances of rapprochement initiation, a major shock played a role. Similarly, leadership change was evident in three of the four cases. However, these variables were not prominent in the termination of rapprochement. In fact, rapprochement often unraveled not due to dramatic shifts, but simply because one side lost interest—even in the absence of notable environmental change.
Abstract
Rivalries tend to persist, with conflicts frequently unfolding between adversaries. Yet, even the most entrenched rivals can experience periods of rapprochement. This article explores the dynamics behind the ebb and flow of rivalry rapprochement between South Korea and North Korea. I argue that such rapprochement is driven by shifts in threat perceptions and strategic calculations. Rivals recalibrate their behavior as these perceptions and goals evolve—changes that typically require a significant external or internal stimulus. Environmental disruptions, such as shocks or leadership transitions, often serve as catalysts for this recalibration. In three out of four instances of rapprochement initiation, a major shock played a role. Similarly, leadership change was evident in three of the four cases. However, these variables were not prominent in the termination of rapprochement. In fact, rapprochement often unraveled not due to dramatic shifts, but simply because one side lost interest—even in the absence of notable environmental change.