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The U.S. Involvement in Global Affairs and the DPRK’s Aggressions: Investigating the Association Using Statistical Analysis

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국제학연구소 (The Keimyung Institute for International Studies)|2023.06|Journal of International and Area Studies|제30권 제1호|pp. 71-92|DOI 10.23071/jias.2023.30.1.71

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참고문헌

키워드

statistical analysisglobal affairsthe DPRKU.S. involvementprovocations and aggressions
주제분류정치외교학

초록

This study aims to investigate, using statistical analysis, whether the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) increases its provocations and aggressions toward other states, especially toward the Republic of Korea (ROK), when the U.S. is involved in conflicts around the world. The empirical findings show that, during 1995–2021, the DPRK’s provocations, conflicts with other states, and aggressions toward the ROK increased when the U.S. got involved in more global conflicts. Particularly, when the U.S. had conflicts with China–Russia–MENA (Middle East and North Africa) states, the DPRK’s provocations, conflicts with other states, and hostile actions toward the ROK increased. Such findings imply that the DPRK regards the U.S. being preoccupied with multiple conflicts around the world as a chance to act aggressively toward other states because the U.S. will not be able to hinder the DPRK’s actions.

Abstract

This study aims to investigate, using statistical analysis, whether the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) increases its provocations and aggressions toward other states, especially toward the Republic of Korea (ROK), when the U.S. is involved in conflicts around the world. The empirical findings show that, during 1995–2021, the DPRK’s provocations, conflicts with other states, and aggressions toward the ROK increased when the U.S. got involved in more global conflicts. Particularly, when the U.S. had conflicts with China–Russia–MENA (Middle East and North Africa) states, the DPRK’s provocations, conflicts with other states, and hostile actions toward the ROK increased. Such findings imply that the DPRK regards the U.S. being preoccupied with multiple conflicts around the world as a chance to act aggressively toward other states because the U.S. will not be able to hinder the DPRK’s actions.

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관련 논문AI추천

A Power Distribution Shift between the ROK–U.S. and China–DPRK Blocs and Its Impact on Inter-Korean Relations, 1990–2021Alec Chung한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2023 · 제35권 제2호Why does North Korea Commit Provocations?우병득한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2019 · 제31권 제1호Explanation of Mixed Results about the Reasons behind North Korea’s Provocations: Classifications and Applications of Multilevel Models우병득한국사회과학협의회 · Korean Social Science Journal2023 · 제50권 제1호North Korea’s Foreign Policy Behaviors toward the United States: Constructive Entanglements in Historical Factors Since the 1970s김성렬국제학연구소 · Journal of International and Area Studies2023 · 제30권 제1호Kim Jong Un’s Military Provocation Strategy and Its Adjustment Potential under Changing Strategic Environments장재규통일학연구원 · Journal of Peace and Unification2025 · 제15권 제3호Methodology for Calculating North Korea’s Provocation Index Using Big Data Analysis이문걸, Jaehyeon Oh한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2025 · 제37권 제1호

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