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The Dual Faces of U.S. Alliances : Deterrence Effects and Vulnerabilities in Northeast Asia

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동아시아국제정치학회 (The East Asian Association Of International Studies (Eaais))|2023.12|국제정치연구 (THE JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)|제26권 제4호|pp. 1-42|DOI https://doi.org/10.15235/jir.2023.12.26.4.1

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참고문헌

키워드

한국Korea억제DeterrenceU.S. alliancesDisputesAlliances as tools of control미국동맹분쟁통제수단으로서 동맹
주제분류정치외교학

초록

This research challenges the conventional assumption that alliances inherently deter aggression by unveiling the distinct deterrent effects of various alliance types. I posit that U.S. alliances functioning as tools of control have limited deterrent effect, while those serving as weapons of power exhibit remarkable effectiveness. The empirical analysis through separate models reveals that both types of U.S. alliances are more likely to be targets of dispute initiation. However, when controlling for U.S. alliances as tools of control in the research model for combined effects, these alliances still exhibit very high deterrence vulnerability. In contrast, U.S. alliances as weapons of power undergo a convertse shift, indicating a very high likelihood of deterring aggression. These findings deconstruct the paradox of Northeast Asian deterrence vulnerability, theoretically implying that mere alliance membership falls short of guaranteeing credible deterrence. Practically, the findings compel immediate action from South Korea: investing in a significant independent military build-up alongside actively reshaping its alliance with the U.S. towards a weapon of power model capable of decisive deterrence. Otherwise, the U.S.-led alliance system risks proving ineffective for South Korea’s security, potentially embroiling it in a war of attrition with an existential threat to its sovereign legitimacy in the Korean Peninsula.

Abstract

This research challenges the conventional assumption that alliances inherently deter aggression by unveiling the distinct deterrent effects of various alliance types. I posit that U.S. alliances functioning as tools of control have limited deterrent effect, while those serving as weapons of power exhibit remarkable effectiveness. The empirical analysis through separate models reveals that both types of U.S. alliances are more likely to be targets of dispute initiation. However, when controlling for U.S. alliances as tools of control in the research model for combined effects, these alliances still exhibit very high deterrence vulnerability. In contrast, U.S. alliances as weapons of power undergo a convertse shift, indicating a very high likelihood of deterring aggression. These findings deconstruct the paradox of Northeast Asian deterrence vulnerability, theoretically implying that mere alliance membership falls short of guaranteeing credible deterrence. Practically, the findings compel immediate action from South Korea: investing in a significant independent military build-up alongside actively reshaping its alliance with the U.S. towards a weapon of power model capable of decisive deterrence. Otherwise, the U.S.-led alliance system risks proving ineffective for South Korea’s security, potentially embroiling it in a war of attrition with an existential threat to its sovereign legitimacy in the Korean Peninsula.

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