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Why China Has Supported North Korea: An Asymmetrical Dependent Relationship between China and North Korea from 1995 to 2016

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한국국방연구원 (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses)|2021.12|The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis|제33권 제4호|pp. 715-733|DOI 10.22883/kjda.2021.33.4.008

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North KoreaChinabalanced allianceasymmetrical dependenceICEWS

초록

North Korea has been China’s socialist ally since the Korean War. Although North Korea’s provocations like nuclear tests have damaged Chinese national interests, China has supported North Korea. This research project examines why China has supported North Korea by analyzing event data from the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS). After China became integrated in the global economy, it has regarded stability and peace much more than the strategic factors of North Korea and has not viewed North Korea as a balanced ally to help China maintain the balance of power since the 1990s. This work also attempts to examine whether or not a strategic reason still plays a role in China’s approach toward North Korea. The empirical results demonstrate that when North Korea faced physical and nonphysical threats from the United States and its allies (South Korea and Japan) in Northeast Asia, China showed amicable behavior toward North Korea in order to save its buffer zone. However, China did not approach North Korea when it faced strategic disadvantages.

Abstract

North Korea has been China’s socialist ally since the Korean War. Although North Korea’s provocations like nuclear tests have damaged Chinese national interests, China has supported North Korea. This research project examines why China has supported North Korea by analyzing event data from the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS). After China became integrated in the global economy, it has regarded stability and peace much more than the strategic factors of North Korea and has not viewed North Korea as a balanced ally to help China maintain the balance of power since the 1990s. This work also attempts to examine whether or not a strategic reason still plays a role in China’s approach toward North Korea. The empirical results demonstrate that when North Korea faced physical and nonphysical threats from the United States and its allies (South Korea and Japan) in Northeast Asia, China showed amicable behavior toward North Korea in order to save its buffer zone. However, China did not approach North Korea when it faced strategic disadvantages.

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관련 논문AI추천

Breaking Isolation and Distancing from a Buffer Zone: The U.S.-China High-Level Visits and China’s Policy Toward North Korea이용재통일학연구원 · Journal of Peace and Unification2022 · 제12권 제2호Sino–DPRK Relations and Chinese Perception toward North Korea’s Nuclear Issue: Meta-Analysis on Chinese Literature since 2012Haofan Fang한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2020 · 제32권 제4호From a Buffer Zone to a Strategic Burden: Evolving Sino-North Korea Relations during Hu Jintao EraHeungkyu Kim한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2010 · 제22권 제1호China’s Position on North Korea’s Provocations박헌봉신아시아연구소 · 신아세아2015 · 제22권 제1호Why Did We Get China Wrong? Reconsidering the Popular Narrative: China will abandon North KoreaSeong-Hyon Lee통일연구원 · International Journal of Korean Unification Studies2016 · 제25권 제1호How Not To Be Abandoned by China: North Korea’s Nuclear Brinkmanship Revisited박재적, 박홍서한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2017 · 제29권 제3호

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