지역통합에 대한 국가의 선호형성: 경제성장률 가설의 경험적 적용가능성과 한계
The State's Preference Formation of Regional Integration: The Limit and Possibility of Economic Growth Hypothesis
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왜, 언제 그리고 어떤 수준의 지역통합에 국가는 참여하기를 원하는가? 이러한 핵심적 질문을 제기하면서 본 연구는 지역통합에 대한 개별국가의 선호형성을 설명하는 하나의 대안적 가설로서 ‘경제성장률 가설’을 제시하고 그 가설의 경험적 적용가능성을 실증적으로 분석한다. 경제성장률 가설에 따르면 국가는 자국의 경제가 지속적인 성장의 국면에 있을 때 지역통합에 강한 선호를 갖지 않거나 얕은 통합을 선호하는 반면 자국의 경제가 지속적이고 장기적인 하락의 국면에 있을 때 지역통합에 대한 강한 선호를 가지며 또한 깊은 통합에 보다 우호적일 것이다. 경제성장율 가설은 지역통합의 지역적 상이성과 국가별 상이성을 동시에 설명할 수 있는 하나의 보편적 가설을 발전시키고자 하는 이론적 시도일 뿐만 아니라 분석수준을 지역수준이 아닌 개별국가수준으로 설정함으로써 비교지역통합연구에서 교차국가간 비교분석의 가능성을 모색하고자 했다는 점에서 의의를 찾을 수 있다.
Abstract
Why, when, and which level of regional integration do states want to participate? For this research question, this study is to develop 'economic growth hypothesis' as an alternative hypothesis of the state's preference formation of regional integration and to test the hypothesis empirically. According to economic growth hypothesis, the state is more likely to participate in the process of regional integration and to have its strong preference of deeper regional integration when the state is in the condition of economic decline. In contrast, the state is more likely not to participate in the process of regional integration or to have its preference of sallow regional integration in the situation where the state's economic performance is relatively good. This study reflects a methodological consideration to pursue a cross-national quantitative analysis in the filed of comparative study of regional integration as well as a theoretical effort to develop a more generalized hypothesis to explain regional and national variations of regional integration.
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