동아시아 국가의 소득수렴과 지역경제통합의 조건
Income convergence and Conditions for Economic Integration in East Asia
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초록
본 논문에서는 동아시아지역 국가들 사이의 소득수렴 가설을 검증하고, 이를 기초로 하여 동 지역에서의 경제통합 조건을 모색하고 있다. 1970～2001년의 기간에 동아시아 지역 9개국을 대상으로 소득수렴 여부를 분석한 결과, 동북아 지역의 국가들 사이에서는 소득수렴 현상이 강하게 나타나고 있으나 동아시아지역 전체로는 그렇지 못하다. 이런 가운데 최근 동아시아에서 지역경제통합 논의가 활발히 이루어지고 있으나 구체적인 진전을 보이고 있지 못하다. 동아시아 지역경제통합이 이루어질 경우 기대되는 통합이익이 특정 국가에 편중되어 나타나면서 구성국간 발산이 예상된다면 이것이야말로 통합논의를 가로막는 주요요인의 하나로 파악된다. 본 논문에서는 지역경제통합의 이익을 크게 취할 것으로 기대되는 국가로부터 그렇지 못한 국가로의 이전(transfer)을 통하여 역내 국가간 사후적 수렴을 도모하는 것이야말로 통합 논의를 성공으로 이끄는 규범적 접근방법이란 것을 제안하고 있다.
Abstract
This Study analyzes income convergence in East Asia economies. In 1970～2001, there has been income convergence among countries in Northeast Asia. However, we cannot find a strong income convergence in East Asia. In East Asia, the discussion on regional economic integration is on the move. But the attempt to form a certain regional economic integration doesn't progress toward the concrete and systematic one. This paper proposes a normative model which leads East Asia economies integrated and converged successfully. In particular, it shows that the transfers between countries in East Asia prime the pump, causing countries in the regional economic integration to converge and increasing regional economic welfare.
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