억제의 불균형: 핵3원 체제와 핵전략을 통해 본 미중 군사 경쟁
Imbalance of Deterrence: Nuclear Triad, Nuclear Strategy, and US-China Military Competition
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미중의 핵무기 분야의 군사 경쟁은 아직은 비교적 안정적이고 평화적이다. 중국은 1964년 핵무기를 개발한 이래 최소한의 억제수준에서 방어적 핵전략을 고수해 오고 있다. 미국은 핵무기의 양과 지상, 해상, 공중의 핵 3원 무기체제의 질적 내용면에서 모두 중국을 압도한다. 수천 개의 핵무기가 서로를 겨눈 채 전면 핵전쟁을 준비하던 핵전략 경쟁이 20세기 미소 간 냉전의 핵심이었다면, 21세기 미중간의 신냉전은 적어도 핵무기 분야에서는 아직 존재하지 않는다. 그럼에도 불구하고 점증하는 미중간의 견제와 긴장이 아시아 태평양 지역을 중심으로 지속될 경우 핵무기 체계와 핵전략에서 미중간의 경쟁이 본격화 될 가능성도 배제할 수 없다. 중국은 미국과의 전면적인 핵전쟁 필요성이나 그 가능성을 상정하지 않지만, 미국의 압도적인 핵 군사력이 중국의 아태지역에서의 군사안보이익 추구에 주요한 억제력으로 작용할 수 있다는 우려를 가진다. 향후 중국이 미국과 같은 핵 3원 체제를 갖추기 위해 노력하거나 현재의 비선제공격 원칙에 입각한 최소억제의 방어적 핵전략을 수정하는지의 여부가 앞으로 미중간의 새로운 핵 군사경쟁을 가늠하는 주요한 지표가 될 것이다.
Abstract
Despite their increasing military competition in the Asia-Pacific, the US-China nuclear rivalry remains stable so far. As China has maintained its minimum deterrence strategy since its first nuclear weapons development in 1964, the US enjoys commanding lead both in terms of the numbers and quality of its nuclear weapons capability over China. Unlike the Cold War confrontation between US and the Soviet Union with thousands of nuclear weapons against each other, the new Cold War in the 21st Century has not seen a full nuclear competition between the US and China. Yet, the increasing Chinese concern of US nuclear superiority against its expanding military interest in the Asia-Pacific could provoke a nuclear arms race between Beijing and Washington. Any Chinese efforts to enhance its nuclear triad or to move away from its long-standing defense nuclear strategy based on minimum deterrence and non-first use will indicate emerging nuclear rivalry between the two giants in the 21st Century.
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