중국 핵전력의 발전과 핵전략의 변화
Change and Continuity in China’s Nuclear Strategy
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현재의 중국 핵전략에 대한 평가는 최소억제에서부터 최대억제에 이르기까지 다양하며, 과연 중국의 핵전략을 서구의 억제전략 개념으로 설명할 수 있을 것인가에 대한 문제도 제기된다. 능력으로서의 ‘중국 핵전력이 어느 수준에 와있는가?’의 질문에 대해서는 대체로 “최소억제 이상”의 전력을 갖추고 있다는데 합의하고 있다. 그러나 의도로서 ‘핵전략’에 대해서는 논쟁적이다. 또한 핵전략의 변화와 지속의 원인이 무엇인가에 대한 논의도 요구된다. 본 논문이 주장하는 바는 다음과 같다. 첫째 중국의 핵전략은 억제전략과 전투수 행전략을 모두 포함하고 있다는 점에서, 억제를 강조하는 위섭(威慑)보다는 핵사용을 전제로 하는 인이불발(引而不发)로 보아야하며, 억제전략 개념으로는 “제한억제”에 가깝다. 둘째 중국의 핵전략은 마오쩌둥 전략이 지속되는 가운데, 은폐에서 가시화로, 대군타격과 선제타격의 요점반격, 안정적 상황관리 등으로 공세성을 더하면서 변화하고 있다. 셋째 이러한 공세적 변화는 기본적으로 마오쩌둥 전략의 공세성에 기인하는 것이기도 하지만 핵전력의 기술적 발달에 따른 것으로, 제한억제전략의 실행에 있어서의 기술적 제한사항을 극복하는 데서 기인하는 것이다. 추가적으로는 미국 MD의 발전과 동아시아 안보딜레마, 국내 전략논쟁의 변화에 따른 논의도 요구된다.
Abstract
This paper aims to answer three basic questions. 1) What is China’s current nuclear strategy? 2) How has China's nuclear strategy changed? Related to that, what has changed and what has continued? 3) What determines change and continuity in China’s nuclear strategy? A literature review of China’s nuclear strategy was carried out, and Mao Zedong’s strategy, the offensive elements of China’s nuclear strategy, and technological development of China’s nuclear power were analyzed. This paper then argues that first, Mao Zedong considered nuclear weapons usable on the battlefield in the same way as conventional weapons. Second, China’s nuclear strategy reinforces its offensive capability with visible credibility, assured retaliation, and escalation control. Third, China’s nuclear strategy is gradually adapting to technological developments. For example, its nuclear delivery system has acquired mobility, penetrability, and has extended its range. We conclude that the proper characterization of China’s nuclear strategy is “limited deterrence,” and the concept of yinerbufa is more appropriate than weishe. Looking ahead, what are decisive factors in the evolution of China’s nuclear strategy? First, since China focuses on its “core interest,” a changing threat as defined by the perceptions of policy makers will force another strategic choice. Second, the Missile Defense system may result in a reassessment of nuclear strategy and force structure. Finally, China has to answer questions about its domestic strategic debate, especially its no-first-use policy.
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