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21세기 미중 핵 안보 딜레마의 심화: 저비스의 핵억제와 안보 딜레마이론을 중심으로

Deepening of US-China Nuclear Security Dilemma in the 21st Century: View from Robert Jervis’ Nuclear Deterrence and Security Dilemma

신성호
세종연구소 (The Sejong Institute)|2018.05|국가전략 (National Strategy)|제24권 제2호|pp. 5-30|DOI 10.35390/sejong.24.2.201805.001

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미중 경쟁안보 딜레마Nuclear DeterrenceSecurity DilemmaUS-China Rivalry핵 억제최소억제Minimum Deterrence저비스2차 보복전략핵무기2nd Strike CapabilityStrategic Nuclear Weapons
주제분류정치외교학

초록

저비스의 안보 딜레마 이론에 의하면 전통적인 핵 억제는 상호확증파괴에 의한 억제와 방어에 기초하고 있었다, 문제는 핵기술의 발전에 따라 공격 우위의 핵전력이 등장하면서 핵 안보 딜레마가 심화 될 수 있다는 점이다. 이제까지 미중의 핵 억제 균형은 미국이 핵전력의 압도적인 우위를 보이는 가운데 중국의 최소억제 전략에 근거하여 비교적 안정적으로 유지되었다. 그러나 최근 군사기술의 발달은 이러한 핵 억제 균형을 파괴하고 상호 선제공격이 더욱 유리하게 되어 양측의 불신과 군비 경쟁, 그리고 안보 딜레마가 심화 되는 경향을 보여준다. 특히 2010년 이후 중국의 본격적인 부상이 가시화되면서 중국의 확장되는 안보이익을 보호하기 위한 국방개혁과 핵 근대화 노력이 지속되는 가운데, 시진핑 2기와 트럼프 행정부의 보다 공세적인 외교 안보정책이 최근의 군사기술혁신과 결합되면서 양측의 핵 억제 균형이 21세기에는 더욱 불안해지면서 핵 안보 딜레마가 심화 될 가능성이 제기된다.

Abstract

According to Robert Jervis, the very destructive power of nuclear weapons and the 2nd strike capability create a dynamic that provide an advantage for defense over offense among nuclear powers. This led to a unique situation in which nuclear weapons decreased the security dilemma based on the concept of mutual assured destruction (MAD). Yet, the development of military technologies tends to provide a new advantage for offensive strategy in nuclear weapons that deepens the nuclear security dilemma. Until now, the Chinese military has adopted a minimum deterrence with ‘no-first use’ doctrine of defensive nature despite the highly imbalanced strategic nuclear forces vis-a-vis the United States. However, lately the Xi Jin-ping government has launched ambitious military reform that includes modernization of its far inferior nuclear forces. The changing dynamic of nuclear deterrence that favors an offensive strategy over an defensive one driven by new progress in military technology coupled with a more aggressive nuclear posture review by the United States casts a danger of intensifying nuclear arms race and deepening security dilemma between Beijing and Washington in the 21st Century.

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