본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

핵보유국에 대한 “전략적 강압”: 1999년 카르길(Kargil) 전쟁

Strategic Coercion toward Nuclear-armed State : A study on the 1999 Kargil War

손한별
세종연구소 (The Sejong Institute)|2017.11|국가전략 (National Strategy)|제23권 제4호|pp. 31-60|DOI 10.35390/sejong.23.4.201711.002

0

조회

0

다운로드

9

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

안정-불안정의 역설Stability-Instability Paradox기정사실화 전략전략적 강압카르길 전쟁Kargil War인도-파키스탄 분쟁India-Pakistan Conflict촉매전략강압 전략Fait Accompli StrategyCatalytic StrategyCoercion StrategyStrategic Coercion
주제분류정치외교학

초록

본 논문은 1999년 카르길 전쟁에서 “인도가 어떻게 파키스탄을 강압하는데 성공했는가?”를 연구질문으로 삼고 있다. 상대적 핵약소국인 파키스탄이 어떠한 전략과 의도를 가지고 도발했으며, 이에 대해 인도는 어떻게 대응했는지를 “압박점”과 “확전우세”의 개념으로 설명한다. 파키스탄은 보유한 핵무기에 대한 자신감을 바탕으로 과감한 재래식 도발을 일으켰는데, 이는 인도에 대한 “기정사실화 전략”과 미국을 비롯한 강대국에 대한 “촉매전략”에서 비롯된 것이었다. 인도는 파키스탄의 강압을 역으로 활용하면서, 파키스탄의 “국제적 고립”, “국내정치의 분절”, “군사적 열세”를 압박점으로, 확전에 대한 비용감수 “능력”과 “신뢰성”, 상황에 대한 “통제력”을 보이면서 강압을 성공으로 이끌었다.

Abstract

This article aims to examine how did India succeed to coerce Pakistan. It explains Pakistan as a relatively weak nuclear power led to military adventualism based on confidence in its nuclear weapons, with a "fait accompli“ strategy against India and a "catalystic” strategy for the US and other major powers. Shedding a light, meanwhile, on the concept of "pressure point" and "escalation dominance," it explains how India could coerce Pakistan to withdraw its troops from the LoC. India, using the reverse of the Pakistani coercion, utilized pressure points on Pakistan; "international isolation", "the cleavage of domestic politics" and "military inferiority", and she led to coercion to success, showing clearly her capability, crediability, and "control" on escalatio. The Kargil War has theoretical and policy implications as the only case where nuclear armed states are engaged in conventional armed conflict. This is a representative example of the 'stability-instability paradox', which provides important theoretical implications in the second nuclear age to determine how New nuclear powers will use their nuclear weapons in times of crisis, and it also provides policy implications for; North Korea's threat or use of nuclear weapons, ROK’s deterrence and responses, and international politics surrounding the Korean peninsula.

참고문헌 (86)

  1. 김재엽, "핵무장국 사이의 제한전쟁수행과 한반도에의 적용: 1999년 인도·파키스탄의 카르길 전쟁 사례를 중심으로", 국가안보와 전략, 14(3), pp.105~144 (2014), 국가안보전략연구원
  2. 김주환, "전략문화 관점에서 본 ‘북한-파키스탄’의 핵개발 동인: 북한 핵능력 고도화에 주는 함의", 한국국제정치학회 60주년 기념 학술대회 (2016)
  3. 김태현, "김정은 정권의 대남 강압전략", 국방정책연구, 31(4), pp.9~44 (2016), 한국국방연구원
  4. 김태현, "북한의 공세적 군사전략: 지속과 변화", 국방정책연구, 33(1), pp.131~170 (2017), 한국국방연구원
  5. 라윤도, "파키스탄의 핵개발과 핵확산 연구 - A. Q. Khan의 역할을 중심으로 -", 남아시아연구, 20(2), pp.91~130 (2014), 인도연구소
  6. 손한별, "파키스탄의 핵태세와 북핵", 국방과 기술 (2016)
  7. 손한별, "인도 핵무기 개발의 네 가지 원동력", 군사연구, (142), pp.179~216 (2016), 육군군사연구소
  8. 이진기, "핵무기 보유 국가간의 재래식 전쟁사례 연구", 합참, (72) (2017)
  9. 함형필, "북한의 핵전략 구상과 전략적 딜레마 고찰", 국방정책연구, 25(2), pp.91~120 (2009), 한국국방연구원
  10. 황병무, "전쟁과 평화의 이해" (2001), 오름
  11. Anderson, Walter, "NPT체제와 핵안보" (2010), 통일연구원
  12. Byman, Daniel, "미국의 강압전략: 이론, 실제, 전망" (2004), 사회평론
  13. Morgan, Patrick, "국제안보: 쟁점과 해결" (2011), 명인문화사
  14. Acosta, Marcus P., "The Kargil Conflict: Waging War in the Himalayas", Small Wars & Insurgencies, 18(3) (2007)
  15. Ahmed, Ali, "The Interface of Strategic and War Fighting Doctrines in the India-Pakistan Context", Strategic Analysis, 33(5) (2009)
  16. Akhtar, Rabia, "Managing Nuclear Risk in South Asia", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 73(1) (2017)
  17. Anand, Vinod, "Military Lessons of Kargil", Strategic Analysis, 23(6) (1999)
  18. Basrur, Rajesh M., "Kargil, Terrorism, and India’s Strategic Shift", India Review, 1(4) (2002)
  19. Basrur, Rajesh M., "Nuclear Weapons and India-Pakistan Relations", Strategic Analysis, 33(3) (2009)
  20. Bhattacharjea, Mira Sinha, "India-China-Pakistan: Beyond Kargil-Changing Equation", China Report, 35(4) (1999)
  21. Bommakanti, Kartik, "Coercion and Control: Explaining India’s Victory at Kargil", India Review, 10(3) (2011)
  22. Bratton, Patrick C., "When is Coercion Successful?: And Why Can’t We Agree on It?", Naval War College Review, 58(3) (2005)
  23. Byman, Daniel, "The Dynamics of Coercion: American Foreign Policy and the Limits of Military Might" (2002), Cambridge Univ. Press
  24. Chakma, Bhumitra, "Escalation Control, Deterrence Diplomacy and America’s Role in South Asia’s Nuclear Crises", Contemporary Security Policy, 33(3) (2012)
  25. Limited War with Pakistan: Will It Secure India’s Interests?, "Chandran, S.", ACDIS, ~ (2009)
  26. Chari, P. R., "Reflections on the Kargil War", Strategic Analysis, 33(3) (2009)
  27. Cheema, Mussarat Javaid, "International Community on Kargil Conflict", South Asian Studies, 28(1) (2013)
  28. Cheema, P., "The Armed Forces of Pakistan" (2002), Allen & Unwin
  29. Chengappa, Raj, "Weapons of Peace" (2000), Harperr Collins
  30. 전광호, "After the Kargil War: Avoiding a Fifth India-Pakistan War", 평화학연구, 17(6), pp.73~93 (2016), 사단법인 한국평화연구학회
  31. Cohen, S. Philip, "India, Pakistan and Kashmir", Journal of Strategic Studies, 25(4) (2002)
  32. "The India-Pakistan Military Balance"[URL]
  33. Evans, A., "Reducing Tension Is Not Enough", The Washington Quarterly, 24(2) (2001)
  34. Marium Fatima, "The Kargil War: Contending Perspectives of Pakistan and India", The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 28(4), pp.627~644 (2016), 한국국방연구원
  35. Freedman, Lawrence, "Strategic Coercion: Cases and Concepts" (1998), Oxford Univ. Press
  36. Frey, Karsten, "The Risk of War in Nuclearized South Asia(Review Essay)", Asian Security, 7(1) (2011)
  37. Ganguly, Sumit, "Toward Nuclear Stability in South Asia", Strategic Analysis, 33(3) (2009)
  38. Horowitz, Michael, "The Spread of NuclearWeapons and International Conflict: Does Experience Matter?", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53(2) (2009)
  39. Hoyt, Timothy D., "Asymmetric Warfare in South Asia" (2009), Cambridge Univ. Press
  40. Hussain, J., "Kargil: what might have happened", Dawn (Dec. 2008), ~ (2008)
  41. Hussain, Syed Rifaat, "Analyzing Strategic Stability in South Asia with Pathways and Prescriptions for Avoiding Nuclear War", Contemporary South Asia, 14(2) (2005)
  42. India Kargil Review Committee, "From Surprise to Reckoning: The Kargil Review Committee Report" (2000), Sage Publications
  43. Jervis, Robert, "The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy" (1985), Cornell Uni. Press
  44. Joeck, Neil, "Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia: Crisis Behaviour and the Bomb" (2008), Routledge
  45. Jones, Rodney W., "Asymmetric Warfare in South Asia: The Causes and Consequences of the Kargil Conflict" (2009), Cambridge Univ. Press
  46. Joshi, Akshay, "Kargil 1999-Lessons in High Technology", Strategic Analysis, 24(8) (1999)
  47. Kapur, S., "Dangerous Deterrent" (2007), Stanford University Press
  48. Kapur, S., "Nuclear Proliferation, the Kargil Conflict, and South Asian Security", Security Studies, 13(1) (2003)
  49. Kapur, S., "Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia", International Security, 33(2) (2008)
  50. Kile, "Trends in World Nuclear Forces, 2016", SIPRI Fact Sheet (June 2016), ~ (2016)
  51. Kondapalli, Srikanth, "China’s Response to the Kargil Incident", Strategic analysis, 23(6) (1999)
  52. Krepon, Michael, "Akshmir and Rising Nuclear Dangers on the Subcontinent", Foreign Affairs (2017)
  53. Kumar, Rajesh, "Revisiting the Kashmir Insurgency, Kargil, and the Twin Peak Crisis: Was the Stability", Instability Paradox at Play?, 2008, pp.3(1), ~
  54. Lavoy, Pater R., "Managing South Asia’s Nuclear Rivalry: New Policy Challenges for the United States", The nonproliferation Review, 10(3) (2003)
  55. Lee, J., "A Study On The Failure of Conventional Deterrence: The Case Study of The Bombardment of Yeonpyeong In 2010", Master, pp.2016
  56. Lo, James, "Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia", International Journal, (Summer) (2003)
  57. Malik, V. P., "Kargil War: Reflections on the tenth Anniversary", strategic Analysis, 33(3) (2009)
  58. Mazari, Shireen, "The Kargil Conflict 1999: Separating Fact from Fiction" (2003), Ferozsons
  59. Mohan, C. Raja, "Crossing the Rubicon: The Shaping if India’s Foreign Policy" (2003), Viking Press
  60. Narang, Vipin, "Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict" (2014), Princeton University Press
  61. Narang, Vipin, "What Does It Take to Deter? Regional Power Nuclear Postures and International Conflict", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 57(3) (2012)
  62. Panday, Anuj, "The Stability-Instability Paradox: The Case of the Kargil War", Penn State Journal of International Affairs, (Fall) (2011)
  63. "Pakistan trained terrorists against India: Pervez Musharraf" (2015)[URL]
  64. Rajagopapan, Rajesh, "The Threat of Unintended Use of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia", India Review, 4(2) (2005)
  65. "Release of Kargil Tape: Masterpiece or Blunder?" (2007)[URL]
  66. American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House, "Riedel, Bruce", University of Pennsylvania, ~ (2002)
  67. Qadir, S., "An Analysis of the Kargil Conflict 1999", RUSI Journal (2002)
  68. Sachdev, A. K., "Media Related Lessons from Kargil", Strategic Analysis, 23(10) (2000)
  69. Sagan, Scott, "The Use of Force Military Power and International Politics" (2009), Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
  70. Salik, N., "Nuclear Doctrine Learning: The Next Decade in South Asia" (2014), Naval Postgraduate School
  71. "Musharraf now has Pak’s Kargil toll: 357" (2006)[URL]
  72. Schelling, Thomas, "Arms and Influence" (1966), Yale Univ. Press
  73. Sethi, Manpreet, "Conventional War in the Presence of Nuclear Weapons", Strategic Analysis, 33(3) (2009)
  74. Sign, Satbir, "Lessons from Kargil: An Introspection", Strategic Analysis, 23(7) (1999)
  75. Singh, Jasit, "Kargil 1999: Pakistan’s War for Kashmir" (1999), Knowledge World
  76. Singh, Swaran, "The Kargil Conflict: Why and How of China’s Neutrality", Strategic Analysis (1999)
  77. Sridharan, E., "International Relations Theory and South Asia", India Review, 4(2) (2005)
  78. Sukumaran, R., "The 1962 India-China War and Kargil 1999: Restrictions on the Use of Air Power", Strategic Analysis, 27(3) (2003)
  79. Talbott, Strobe, "Engaging India: Diplomacy, Democracy and the Bomb" (2004), Penguin Books
  80. Tellis, A., "Limited Conflicts Under the Nuclear Umbrella: Indian and Pakistani Lessons from the Kargil Crisis" (2001), RAND National Security Research Division, RAND Corporation
  81. Van Evera, Stephen, "Offense, Defense, and the Causes of War", International Security, 22(4) (1998)
  82. Verghese, B. G., "Kargil War: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary", Strategic Analysis, 33(3) (2009)
  83. Wirsing, R., "Kashmir in the Shadow of War: regional rivalries in a nuclear age" (2003), Routledge
  84. Preventing Catastrophe: U.S. Policy options for Management of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia, "Wojtysiak, Martin J.", Air War College, ~, pp.Maxwell Paper, No.25 (2001)
  85. "Kargil Conflict" (1999)[URL]
  86. "No mujahideen, our soldiers took part in Kargil" (2013)[URL]

관련 논문AI추천

카르길 전쟁 사례로 본 인도의 대파키스탄 강압전략 : 확전우세와 인지전을 중심으로김형구화랑대연구소 · 한국군사학논집2023 · 제79권 제3호핵무장국 사이의 제한전쟁수행과 한반도에의 적용: 1999년 인도·파키스탄의 카르길 전쟁 사례를 중심으로김재엽국가안보전략연구원 · 국가안보와 전략2014 · 제14권 제3호대남도발에 대한 강경대응전략의 실효성: 인도-파키스탄 사례를 중심으로권성진, 김창준, 박성수화랑대연구소 · 한국군사학논집2022 · 제78권 제2호핵무장국가의 군사전략과 전력기획 : 파키스탄 사례 분석과 북한에 대한 함의김태현국방부군사편찬연구소 · 군사2018 · 제108호핵무기 시대의 제한전쟁 수행요인에 관한 연구장용육군군사연구소 · 군사연구2023 · 제155호제2차 인도ㆍ파키스탄 전쟁 이후의 대립관계에 관한 연구: Kashmir문제를 중심으로조길태인도연구소 · 남아시아연구2008 · 제14권 제1호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (4건)

북한의 핵 위협에 대응한 한국의 군사전략박창희pp. 5-30미국 LNG 도입의 전략적 고찰: 경제적, 정치적 함의를 중심으로김용태, 이재승pp. 61-90일본의 공공외교박창건pp. 91-114배반된 기대인가 과도한 기대인가? 박근혜 정부의 ‘중국 변화론’ 평가김재철pp. 115-136
원문 보기