핵무장국가의 군사전략과 전력기획 : 파키스탄 사례 분석과 북한에 대한 함의
Nuclear Armed State’s Military Strategy and Force Planning: Pakistan and its implication to North Korea
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본 논문에서는 싸우는 방식을 먼저 규정하고 이에 필요한 전력을 산출하는 ‘전략기반의 전력기획 절차’를 적용하여 핵무장국가의 군사전략과 전력기획 방식을 파키스탄 사례를 중심으로 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 본 논문은 파키스탄의 핵무장을 전후로 하여 재래식 전력건설의 증감추세를 분석하고 그 요인을 규명하며, 파키스탄이 최대 안보위협으로 인식하는 핵무장국 인도를 대상으로 어떻게 재래식 전력을 건설하는지에 주안을 두고 사례연구를 진행할 것이다. 이를 통해서 두 가지 주장이 검증될 것이다. 첫째, 파키스탄은 핵무장 이후에도 재래식 전력 건설을 감축하지 않고 있다는 점이다. 이를 통해 파키스탄이 보유한 핵무기의 안보능력은 제한적일 수밖에 없으며 이로 인해 핵대체 효과가 미비하게 나타난다고 주장한다. 둘째, 파키스탄은 핵전략과 재래식 전략의 상호작용 관점에서 재래식 전략을 발전시키고 있으며 여기에는 지상군 중심의 재래식 전력 건설을 통해 당면한 최대 안보위협을 대처하는데 주안을 두고 있음을 확인할 수 있다. 이를 통해 전략기반의 전력건설절차가 파키스탄의 전력건설 추세를 분석하는 방법론으로서 유용하다는 점을 확인할 것이며, 재래식 전력이 핵무장상황에서도 여전히 군사적 유용성을 가진다는 점을 주장한다.
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to analyze how to develop a military strategy and build military forces especially focusing on the conventional forces of nuclear armed states as a comparative case study of Pakistan, based upon a force planning framework of strategy driven model. This paper will examine a trend of conventional forces after and before possessing nuclear weapons and clarify how to build conventional forces in rivalry with Indian border threats. I have two arguments in this study. Firstly, this article argues that pakistan does not reduce conventional forces even after developing nuclear weapons which has only a limited security effectiveness. This causes a little nuclear substitution effect. Secondly, pakistan is developing its own military strategy based on a ‘nuclear-conventional interplay’, which priority mostly lies in building a strong land forces. This aims to address a possible surprise attack from india conceptualized as a Cold-Start Doctrine. This military strategy deals with a limited conventional attack in the nuclear shadow to penetrate pakistan’s territory by cutting a military mobilization time and elevating a military readiness. To address an indian blitzkrieg-like CSD, Pakistan has developed a Full-Spectrum Deterrence nuclear strategy on the one hand, and a New Concept for Warfighting conventional strategy on the other hand. Accordingly, Pakistan is increasing tactical nuclear weapons including low-yield nuclear weapons and delivery systems, and modernizing joint operation capabilities in order to implement its military strategy. After all, this paper will argue that a strategy-driven force planning model is to be estimated an useful tool to explain nuclear armed states’ force planning and conventional forces in the shadow of nuclear weapons still key factor to deter and address multiple external threats. In Conclusion, this paper provided some implications for north Korean military development.
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