북한의 ‘비핵화 국가전략’과 韓美의 ‘비핵화 외교’ :북핵 장기화에 대비한 중장기 국가전략의 필요성
Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula: North Korea’s National Strategy and Diplomacy of South Korea and the United States
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북한은 김일성이 제시한 조선반도의 ‘비핵지대화’를 ‘비핵화’로 포장하여 韓美를 기만하면서 중장기 국가전략을 추진한 끝에 핵보유에 성공했다. 반면에 한국이 먼저 핵개발을 포기한 후 북한을 설득해서 비핵화를 유도하겠다는 한미의 비핵화 외교는 실패했다. 한미가 만든 비핵화 용어를 활용해서 핵포기 가능성을 시사하며 시간을 벌고 보상을 챙기는 북한의 전술에 속은 결과이다. 2018년 남북정상회담과 미북정상회담은 북한의 최고 결정권자로부터 핵을 포기하고 NPT에 비핵회원국으로 복귀하겠다는 선언을 이끌어내지 못했다. 북한의 정확한 의도를 모른 채 핵을 포기할 것이라는 막연한 기대만 갖고 애매하게 타협했던 비핵화 외교의 실패가 반복된 것이다. 세계질서는 협력과 상생의 탈냉전시대가 끝나고 강대국들이 힘을 바탕으로 국익을 추구하는 경쟁시대로 접어들었다. 아시아에서는 중국이 러시아와 공조 하에 미국주도의 지역질서를 중국주도로 재편하기 위해 미국의 영향력 약화를 도모하고 있다. 북핵문제는 중·러가 한반도에서 미국을 상대로 펼치는 전략게임의 대리전으로서 장기화가 불가피하며 한국은 국가생존의 위협인 북핵에 대비한 중장기 국가전략을 추진해야 한다.
Abstract
North Korea succeeded with its long-term national strategy of denuclearization to develop nuclear weapons by deceiving South Korea and the United States into believing that it has the same conception of denuclearization as theirs. In contrast, denuclearization diplomacy of South Korea and the United States to persuade the North to follow suit after the South’s abandoning nuclear development utterly failed. North Korea cheated South Korea and the United States by deliberately misinterpreting the word ‘denuclearization’ which was coined by the two countries, camouflaging its true nuclear intention, earning time, pocketing rewards, and continuing to develop nuclear weapons. North Korea’s national strategy originated from Kim Il Sung’s proposal of a nuclear weapon free zone in Korea with a purpose of removing American influence, while South Korean and American diplomacy pursued the two Koreas’ abandoning nuclear options with no impact on American presence in Korea. The inter-Korean summits and the U.S.-DPRK summit failed to bring forth Kim Jong Un’s firm commitment to give up nuclear weapons and return to the NPT as a non-nuclear member state. The summits were simply a repetition of failed denuclearization diplomacy that had been unable to read North Korea’s true intention and made half-baked compromises. At present, international order is characterized by great powers competing to enhance their national interests by relying on pure power rather than following international norms. In Asia, China attempts to replace an America-led regional order with a new one centered on Beijing. North Korea’s nuclear problem has become a proxy war facilitated by China and Russia in order to weaken American influence in Northeast Asia. It is likely to be a long-term game, so much so that South Korea must plan a long-term national strategy to counter a vital security threat posed by nuclear-armed North Korea and realize an eventual denuclearization of the North.
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