북한 비핵화 협상 평가와 한국의 대응전략

Abstract

What is the North’s intention of being obsessed with its nuclear development? There are two deferent perspectives over North’s intention. One interprets North’s nuclear development as a means of negotiating for regime stability, the other as of purpose for unification under communism. In fact, the two perspectives are all correct. North Korea has developed nuclear weapons and has been pushing forward the nuclear development while deceiving the international community with such complex intentions. It has strengthened the power of nuclear warheads through six nuclear tests and more than 100 missile launches and is still constantly producing nuclear materials. North Korea also is at the final stage to complete intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking the U.S. mainland with short-range missiles North Korea has deceived the international community while developing its nuclear weapons. During the negotiations from the early 1990s to the early 2000s(so-called Denuclearization 1.0), North bought time and secured economic support pretending not to develop nuclear weapons. Since then, it has declared the completion of nuclear force and continued summit talks with South Korea and the U.S. claiming conditional denuclearization since 2018 (so-called Denuclearization 2.0), giving the false expectation of denuclearization. Perhaps North Korea had the intention to give away some part of the Yongbyon nuclear program and lift strong sanctions against it which have been imposed since 2016. Of course, there was no commitment to denuclearization from the first place. As a result, the denuclearization process has not made a step forward so far despite the 6.12 Singapore statement. Instead, North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities are further developing. In that sense, both 1.0 and 2.0 Denuclearization negotiations can be assessed to be failed. The future prospects for denuclearization are bleak. In this situation, what we can do is to protect us from North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, and strengthen sanctions against the North to impose the denuclearization. To accomplish these, this paper presents five suggestions; Let’s 1) consider security as the top priority of the national interest, 2) strengthen the ROK-U.S. alliance and cooperations, 3) reestablish the policy of North Korea and unification, 4) cooperate with China with more confidence, and 5) contact Japan with the perspective of the national interest.