북핵문제 해결과 한반도 평화체제의 모색: 미·중관계와 북한의 안보위협 인식

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to investigate how North Korea promoted the nuclear politics amidst the changing US-China relations and explore its association with the “Korean Peninsula Peace Regime.” Currently, US-China competition is deepening in the Northeast Asian region and across the globe and the rising power of China is having a significant impact on the path of change for North Korea’s political perception especially toward its nuclear development and establishment of peace regime on the Korean peninsula. This study attempts to evaluate the distribution of power in Northeast Asia centered around US-China relations and the changing power balance in the region with a focus on national power and military strength. This paper discusses the characteristics and limitations of North Korean security and military threats. The current North Korea’s nuclear politics is a result of strategic choice to adapt to the strategic environment of power dynamics between the US and China. Based on power transition theory, North Korea recognizes that unlike the past, US-China relations is changing due to rising power of China. North Korea is refusing to ride on China’s coat-tails but instead opting to adopt a less-dependent, leaning strategy on certain issues. Ultimately, North Korea’s nuclear development is not a bargaining chip toward the US but a new form of autonomous policy line under the strategic relations between the US and China and an attempt to ensure regime security on its own through nuclear balance on the Korean peninsula without the help of China. The resolution of North Korean nuclear issue and establishment of peace regime on the Korean peninsula is the top agenda that North and South Korea should embark on together—not the US or China. In other words, it is crucial for South Korea to gain diplomatic autonomy and leadership capacity through taking the lead in the Korean peninsula affairs in the current atmosphere with rising US-China competition. Thus, South Korea should take a more assertive position rooted in positive realism and focus on inter-Korean relations to resolve North Korean nuclear issue and build Korean peninsula peace regime.