확률적 접근의 감정평가상 내재한 불확실성 인식

Abstract

Appraisal is a task to determine the economic value of land or such and mark the result as a price. It is about judging the economic value of a certain property, and economic value is influenced by a variety of social, economic, or administrative factors. Thus, the value of property lies on the continuum that is in constant changes or variations. Therefore, for an appraisal to figure out the value of property, it is needed to understand all the changes of the factors lying in the past, present, and also future. It is our reality that either judging or predicting something in the future relies on assumptions or conditions. Thus, it is not too much to say that appraisal implies uncertainty necessarily. It is because the procedure of appraisal can be somehow seen as a process to resolve uncertainty. And the concept of market value that is decided by that process also implies uncertainty or stochastic concept. This study aims to recognize uncertainty existing on appraisal and suggest how to express it. First of all, the research is going to examine the range of recognition on uncertainty from the following aspects, first, the aspect of the appraisal process, second, the aspect of the appraisal result, and third, the aspect of appraisal result analysis in order to figure out uncertainty existing theoretically, practically, and realistically. Based on this, the study suggests the stochastic approach that can reflect uncertainty internalized in an appraisal. The paper suggests a method to consider uncertainty lying on the cash flow by recognizing as the stochastic variable the input variable in the process to estimate return price with DCF and using the Crystal Ball program applying Monte Carlo’s simulation method for it.