동적DCF법을 활용한 불확실성하의 오피스빌딩 가치평가

Abstract

There were no regulations on dynamic discounted cash flow method in the appraisal criteria in South Korea; thus, the use of this method has not been mature enough in practice. The act on this method has been valid quite for a short period of time. For this reason, the data necessary for this method has not been arranged appropriately, and the level of appraisers’ awareness of this has been low. In this regard,this study introduced the concept, variables and problems of static DCF method and suggested the concept of dynamic DCF method that would be able to reflect the danger and variableness inherent in the appraisal. Then, the study applied Monte Carlo simulation method into the variables of static DCF method model,thus detecting uncertainty for future prediction. Then, it applied the dynamic DCF method that assumed five years of ownership for the estimated appraisal values, to obtain value estimation. For the simulation-based estimation, it divided the probability distribution for rental income and operating expense ratio into normal distribution and optimum distribution. Afterward, the study examined the average and standard deviation for the results obtained after conducting 10,000 and 100,000 times of simulation for each. It has been noted that the more execution frequency there was for each distribution, the higher optimum values but the lower minimum values the study obtained, whereas the average and standard deviation were almost the same even with the increase in the number of execution frequency. These results were natural in the situations where rental income influenced about 65% in the determination of appraised values.