탐색, 학습, 환경선택: 한국 대규모 기업집단의 사업철수 결정요인
Exploration, learning, and environmental selection: Antecedents of subsidiary divestitures in Korean business groups
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본 연구는 의사결정에 있어서의 제한된 합리성을 전제로 하는 진화경제학(evolutionary economics)과 조직생태학(organizational ecology)의 관점에서 다각화된 기업집단의 사업철수에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 밝히고자 하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 보다 구체적으로, 자사의 과거행위 그리고 유사한 지위에 있는 다른 기업집단의 행위가 의사결정에 있어서 하나의 준거틀(frame of reference)로서 작용될 가능성이 있다는 관점 하에서 연구가설을 도출하고 이를 실증하였다. 실증분석을 위해서는, 2004년부터 2010년까지 공정거래위원회에서 발표하는 30대 기업집단에 지속적으로 포함되었던 18개 기업집단을 기준으로 구축된 126개의 패널자료를 활용하였다. 포아송 회귀분석을 사용한 실증분석 결과, 첫째, 기업집단의 과거 신규사업진출 빈도는 이후의 사업철수 가능성에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 둘째, 과거에 이루어진 사업철수의 빈도는 이후에 사업철수가 발생할 가능성에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 셋째, 유사지위 기업집단의 성과가 좋을수록 사업철수의 가능성이 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 넷째, 유사지위 기업집단의 사업철수는 기업집단의 사업철수 가능성을 낮추는 것으로 확인되었다.
Abstract
Drawing on the perspectives of evolutionary economics and organizational ecology, this study intends to identify the influencing factors on the divestitures of Korean business groups. Specifically, we hypothesized that the business groups' past behaviors and similar status firms' current activities and outcomes can serve as a frame of reference in making decisions about subsidiary divestitures of the business groups. Using top 30 business group list of The Korea Fair Trade Commission from 2004 to 2010, we built the panel data which consists of 126 observations. The statistical results employing negative binomial regressions generally supported our arguments. We found that (1) prior experiences of entries into new markets were positively related to the likelihood of subsidiary divestiture, (2) The frequencies of past subsidiary divestitures had a negative effect on the likelihood of subsidiary divestiture, (3) The performances of the business groups with similar status were positively related to the likelihood of subsidiary divestiture, (4) The subsidiary divestitures of the business groups with similar status negatively influenced the possibility of subsidiary divestiture.
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