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중국 투자기업의 철수 결정요인 분석

Drivers for the Divestment of Foreign Subsidiaries of Korean Manufacturing Firms in China

김익수|한병섭
한국국제경영학회 (Korean Academy of International Business)|2004.03|국제경영연구 (International Business Journal)|제15권 제1호|pp. 107-149

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FDI in China중국투자해외투자 철수Divestment
주제분류경영학

초록

본 연구는 전략적 관점과 자원기반 관점에서 중국에 투자한 한국기업 자회사의 철수 결정요인에 대해 살펴보고 있다. 분석방법으로는 시간가변 변수의 영향력을 가장 잘 설명할 수 있는 이항 로지스틱스 분석(Binary logistics model with time varying covariates)을 이용하였다. 분석 결과, 자회사 연령(age)이 많을수록, 후발진입기업 일수록 철수 가능성이 상대적으로 높았다. 단독투자보다는 합작투자 형태로 진입한 기업들일수록, 그리고 선행투자 경험이 많은 기업들일수록 철수 가능성이 상대적으로 낮게 나타났다. 다각화전략 요인의 경우 비관련부문으로 진입한 기업보다는 주력품목 관련부문으로 진입한 기업들의 생존가능성이 상대적으로 높음을 알 수 있었다. 모기업의 자원기반과 관련해서는 재무적 자원 가용성을 나타내는 유동비율과 부채비율 변수가 각각 유의한 부의 값과 정의 값을 갖는 것으로 나타나 유동비율이 높을수록, 부채비율이 낮을수록 자회사 생존가능성이 높아지는 것을 알 수 있었다. 또한 모기업의 규모를 나타내는 자산규모도 유의한 부의 값을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 모기업의 무형자산 보유정도를 나타내는 광고집약도와 연구개발 집약도는 부의 관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났지만 유의성은 없는 것으로 나타났다. 기존 연구에 의하면 무형자산의 경우 시장진입 결정에 있어서는 유의한 정에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 하지만 청산결정에 있어서 아무런 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 나타나는 것은 주목할 만한 결과라 할 수 있다.

Abstract

This research considers organizational ecology, strategic, and resource based factors in examining the rate of failure of overseas investment subsidiaries. In order to analyze the influence of the independent variables on the dependent variable of whether or not a business is liquidated, a binary logistics model with time varying covariates is used.Among subsidiary factors, as age increases, the probability of exit also increases. With regards to type of investment, it was found that the probability of exit is lower for joint venture investments than for independent investments. Regarding investment experience, as prior investment experience increases, the probability of exit declines, which confirms the importance of experience and learning. In the case of strategic diversification factor, the probability of survival was much higher for firms that enter a market in related areas rather than unrelated areas. With regards to market entry timing, it was found that the probability of failure for late-coming firms is much higher than that for early entrants, a result that is statistically significant. In relation to the resource base of the parent company, it was found that as liquidity ratios increase, and debt ratios decrease, the probability of survival of subsidiaries increases. Parent company intangible asset, as measured by advertising and R&D intensity, was found to have a negative effect, but it was non significant. According to existing research, intangible assets have a positive influence on market entrance decisions. However, it can be said that results show they have no effect on exit decisions.

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