CIS와 몽골의 경제성장 비교 분석 －성장회계 접근법－

Abstract

This paper reviews the economic growth of transition economies such as CIS and Mongolia, and uses the growth accounting approach to determine the sources of growth in these countries and compare them with other fast growing economies, and addresses some policy suggestions for the sustaining economic growth in the future. CIS and Mongolia, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, embarked on its transformation from a centrally planned economy to a market-based system in the early 1990s. These countries experienced a painful transformational recession in the 1990s during its transition before beginning to recover as a result of efficiency gains from market-oriented reforms. The main conclusion is that the estimated total factor productivity growth for CIS was relatively higher than other fast growing economies. Capital accumulation in CIS made a significant contributions to economic growth, while labor's contribution seemed to be relatively small. However, the estimated total factor productivity growth for Mongolia was minus, which means Mongolia depends more on capital accumulation. The policy suggestions of this study are as follows. A key question for prospective growth is that the TFP gains achieved thus far have already eliminated most of the inefficiencies of central planning, and will therefore soon fade away. In this respect, further improvement in market reforms and institutions would need to play an important role. Also, greater labor use combined with the recent trend of faster capital accumulation are expected to play a more important role in the medium-term growth.