몽골의 산업구조 변화 추이와 변화 요인

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyse the transition of industrial structure and its determining factors in Mongolia for the long-run stable economic development of Mongolian economy. The industrial structure of Mongolia has developed fast since transformation of its economic system in 1991. Namely, the industrial share of agriculture and cattle-breeding, mining and manufacturing, and services to GDP turned out 14.8%, 43.4%, 41.8% in 2012 respectively compared to 38.0%, 34%, 28% which showed stylized industrial structure patterns of very low-income countries. Therefore the industrial structure in Mongolia has converged persistently to the industrial structure of developed countries. The determining factors to transform the industrial structure of Mongolia are labor productivity gap between industries, abundant mining resources, small population, land-locked country etc. The policy alternatives for Mongolia to achieve desirable industrial structure appeared in developed countries are as follows: first, Mongolia should achieve foodstuff self-sufficiency through expansion of acreage of cultivation and raise labor productivity which can accumulate capital in agriculture via reshuffle of hidden unemployment to manufacturing. Second, in view of resource-based economy of Mongolia, the mining area will be the key industry in the future but its share to GDP should be decreased. Because mining has heavily dependent on the foreign adverse economic shocks. So the share of manufacturing, construction, electricity and water supply, transportation and communication should be expanded through investment formed by accumulating capital in mining area. Lastly, Mongolia is small country in population and has low-skilled productivity capacity in manufacturing and sufficient aggregate demand. Overcoming this difficulties, quantitative birthrate encouragement policy and qualitative human capital accumulation policy via expansion of education should be visualized and exercised.