유라시아 국가의 체제전환 불황과 경제성장 회복에 대한 연구
A Study on the Transformation Recession and Growth Recovery in the Eurasian Countries
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2000년대 유라시아 국가들이 달성한 이례적으로 높은 경제성장에 대한 가장 널리 알려진 설명은 석유가격 붐 때문이라는 것이었다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 설명이 이 지역의 높은 경제성장 전반을 설명하는 데 충분한 설명력을 제공하지 못한다는 점을 밝힌다. 석유 붐은 유라시아 지역의 높은 경제성장에 기여한 것은 분명하지만, 그 기저에 있는 2000년대 이후 회복의 원인은 중부유럽 및 발트 해 연안국과 별반 다르지 않았다. 즉, 유라시아 국가들이 중부유럽 및 발트 해 연안국과 마찬가지로 경제성장 회복을 위한 안정화와 자유화, 제도발전의 ‘최소 충분 임계수준’에 도달했다는 것이다. 본 논문에서는 유라시아 국가들이 2000년대에 달성한 고도 경제성장의 원인을 분석하는 데 초점을 맞추고, 이와 같은 체제전환 국가의 경제성장을 재개하는 데 최소한도의 충분한 임계수준이 존재했는지를 평가할 것이다. 이 논문은 유라시아 국가들이 경험한 성장회복의 상대적인 수준이나 지속가능성의 문제에 초점을 맞추는 것이 아니라 성장회복의 시점에 달성한 개혁의 진척수준에 초점을 맞춘다. 중부유럽과 발트 해 연안국이 1992~1994년에 겪은 성장회복의 실제 경험을 기준으로 세 가지 개혁 차원에 대해 최소회복 임계수준을 계산하고, 그 다음에 유라시아 중간개혁국이 각 개혁 차원에서 중부유럽 및 발트 해 연안국과 대략 동일한 임계수준에 도달했을 때 전반적인 성장이 회복되기 시작했다는 것을 밝힌다. 따라서 이 논문은 경제성장을 종속변수로 하고 자유화와 제도개혁을 독립변수로 하는 종래의 계량경제학적 모델설정은 2000년대에 이르러 그 중대한 의미를 상실했다고 주장하는데, 그 중요한 이유는 이미 개혁선진국이라 할 수 있는 중부유럽과 발트 해 연안국에서 이들 지수는 최대 수준에 도달했거나 접근하고 있기 때문이다.
Abstract
The most well-known explanation for the unprecedented high economic growth of Eurasian countries in 2000s was the oil price boom. This paper makes clear that this explanation can not provide sufficient explanatory power for the overall high growth in the area. The oil boom certainly contributed to the high growth, but the underlying reason for recovery since 2000s remains the same as for Central Europe and Baltic countries. In other words, Eurasian countries had reached aminimum sufficient critical level of stabilization, liberalization and institution development for growth recovery as in Central Europe and Baltic countries. This paper, focusing on the analysis of high level of growth that Eurasian countries have achieved in 2000s, aims to assess whether this kind of minimum sufficient critical level necessary for growth recovery in transition countries was existed. This paper is not focusing on relative level of growth recovery or the issue of its persistency, but on the level of progress of reforms achieved at the time of economic recovery. Firstly, we calculate the minimum critical level of growth recovery in three dimension of reforms based on actual experiences of Central Europe and Baltic countries reached in 1992-1994, then elucidate the general growth outcome of Eurasian moderate reforming countries when they had reached approximately the same level in each reform dimension as with Central Europe and Baltic countries. Thus, this paper argues that traditional econometric model specification considering growth rate as a dependent variable and level of liberalization and institutional reform as independent variables have lost itssignificant meanings by the year 2000, because these indices in the advanced reformers such as Central Europe and Baltic countries have already reached or were approaching to the maximum level of reforms.
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