주택매매시장, 전세시장 및 월세시장 간의 상호연관성에 관한 연구

Abstract

Korean residental market has three major sectors; housing ownership market, Chonsei market, and monthly rental market. The object of this study is to define the driving forces and relationship among the three different aspects of the markets. The findings out of this research could contribute to the housing stabilization policy which has a perennial importance economically and politically in Korea. This study proposed two differences hypothesis either might working in present Korean market. The first one is 'Discounted Price' hypothesis and the other is 'Constrained Choice' hypothesis. In the Constrained Choice theory, the housing market working based on Various quantitative approach were considered. This study adoptd Granger Casualty Test to find which factor is a cause or result to other factors. The Cross Correlation Coefficient Test is for the verification of result of Granger Casualty Test and to define which factor is advance to other factors. Vector Auto Regression analysis was practiced to define the function and relativity among ownership price, Chonsei price, and monthly rental price. The time series economic data should be stationary before analyzed. The existence of cointegration could bring about spurious result of time consuming research. As a Result of analysis, we found that housing ownership price is still the driving force to Chonsei Price and monthly rental price. So the Korean residential market is worked by the Constrained Choice theory, and result following study, like cross correlation coefficient analysis and Error Correction Model analysis, supports the result good enough but not in every case. In general, Constrained Choice theory is prevailing in housing market, and the residential housing price is major driving force and influences to Chonsei market, and monthly rental market. So the housing policy and tax policy should be concentrated on stabilizing residential ownership market.