동남아시아 신생민주주의 정당체제 비교 연구:선거제도와 정당체제의 파편성
A Comparative Study of Party Systems in Southeast Asian New Democracies:Electoral Institutions and Party System Fragmentation
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본 논문은 동남아시아 신생민주주의 정당체제의 파편성에 영향을미치는 제도적 요인을 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 민주주의 시기미얀마와 필리핀, 태국, 인도네시아의 정당체제는 파편성에 있어서국가와 시기에 따라 상당한 편차를 나타낸다. 본 연구는 선거제도의차이가 이러한 파편성의 차이를 초래하였다고 주장한다. 논문의 주요 발견들은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 득표가 의석으로 전환되는 방식과선거구의 크기(district magnitude)가 집합 수준의 정당체제 파편성에영향을 미친다. 다수대표제에 비하여 비례대표제 하에서, 그리고 소선거구제에 비하여 중대선거구제 하에서 파편성은 증가한다. 둘째,선거구 크기와 대통령의 재선 가능 여부가 개별 수준의 정당체제 파편성에 영향을 미친다. 소선거구에서 당선되는 국회의원들의 비율이증가할수록, 그리고 동시선거에서 대통령의 재선이 허용되거나 현직수상의 정당이 총선에 참여할 때 파편성은 감소한다.
Abstract
In this article I aim to analyze the institutional factors affecting thefragmentation of party systems in Southeast Asian new democracies—Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia. The party systemfragmentation differs across countries and periods, and I argue thatelectoral institutions affect the differences in fragmentation. I find thatfirst, electoral formula and district magnitude affect the fragmentation ofparty systems at the aggregate level: the fragmentation tends to be higherunder multi-member district systems and proportional representationsystems, compared to single-member district systems and majoritarianelectoral systems. Second, district magnitude and banning of president’sre-election affect the fragmentation of party systems at the individuallevel: the fragmentation tends to decrease as the proportion of legislatorselected under single-member districts increases, and when the presidentis allowed to run for re-election in concurrent elections or when the primeminister’s party participates in elections.
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