태국 2023: 미래로의 전진을 위해 극복해야 할 구조적 문제들
Thailand 2023: Structural Problems to Overcome to Move Forward
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
2023년 가장 많은 주목을 받았던 태국의 총선에서 유력한 승자로 점쳐졌던 프아타이당을 제치고 까오끌라이당이 제1당이 되었지만 총리 선출은 실패한다. 총리선출권을 넘겨받은 프아타이당은 약속을 어기고 군부 보수세력과 손을 잡아 새로운 내각을 출범시켰다. 이렇듯 표심과 민심을 거스르고 탄생한 세타 타위신 정부는 다수의 불안 요소들을 떠안고 출발했다. 팬데믹 이전 수준으로 간신히 회복했지만, 더딘 회복은 태국 경제구조가 가진 한계를 여실히 보여주었다. 그 한계가 빈부격차 해소와 인적자원개발 실패에서 비롯되었다는 것은 앞으로도 지속해서 태국의 경제성장률이 둔화될 것임을 의미한다. 더불어 가속화하고 있는 기후변화와 노동인력의 고령화는 경제성장을 슬로건으로 내세운 세타 정부에게 있어 단시간에 극복하기 힘든 장애물이 될 것이다. 거듭되는 쿠데타와 정국 혼란으로 국제적 신뢰도를 잃고 심화하는 미․중 대결 구도에서 자신의 위치를 찾지 못한 채 태국은 새로운 파트너를 찾아가는 듯 하지만 이를 통해 이전의 외교력을 회복할지는 미지수다. 그 가운데 수교 65주년을 맞은 한-태 관계도 상호호혜적 관계 형성을 위해 극복해야하는 새로운 과제들을 마주하게 되었다.
Abstract
In the 2023 general election, the Move Forward Party led by a newer and younger political generation won first place instead of the Pheu Thai Party which has been the biggest opposition party since 2011. Nevertheless, the Move Forward Party was blocked from bringing its candidate to the premiership and forced to pass the baton to the Pheu Thai Party. The latter broke the promise as predicted by many political pundits before the election and created a coalition government with the conservatives including the military. The new cabinet under Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin embarked on a long, unforeseeable journey after betraying the majorities that had long suspected whether the Pheu Thai Party and its CEO-like leaders could bring about long-term stability to Thai politics and society. Thai economy recovered to the pre-pandemic level at a much slower pace than its neighbors. The slow recovery however exposed persisting structural problems of the Thai economy that have been mainly derived from the failure to resolve the gap between the rich and the poor and the unimproved quality of education, which had been the key factor to the weak labor competency. Besides, climate change and the rapidly aging society will add other obstacles to the Srettha administration for achieving much anticipated economic growth in the coming years. Repeated coups and consequent instabilities have far affected international trust in Thailand for several decades. Yet, the Thai government has not clarified its stance and position against the dramatically worsening US-China relations. Meanwhile, Thailand has been enthusiastically cooperating with Saudi Arabia after the 32-year-long severance as if the latter would lighten the burden of losing diplomatic and economic power for Thailand. Although Thailand and South Korea celebrated the Sixty-fifth anniversary of diplomatic relations in 2023, several debates and unpleasant incidents have dampened the spirits to move forward to mutually beneficial and friendly relations.
참고문헌 (79)
- 김서영, "태국 활동가 네띠윗 ‘시민들, 민주화 받아들일 준비돼 … 지치지 말고 싸워야’", 경향신문, ~ (2023)
- 박태근, "돼지농장서 숨진 태국인, 짐승우리만도 못한 곳에 살았다", 동아일보, ~ (2023)
- 박혜인, "백종원, 태국 음식․문화 무시 논란에 ‘현지 식사 방법 존중, 오해없길’ 해명", MBC 뉴스, ~ (2023)
- 법무부, "태국인 입국불허 관련 언론보도에 대한 설명", ~ (2023)
- 2023년 10월 출입국․외국인정책 통계월보, "법무부 출입국․외국인정책본부", ~ (2023)
- 안동준, "‘나라 망신’ 태국서 ‘음란라이브’ 유튜버 구속… ‘수익금 몰수’", YTN, ~ (2023)
- 이승욱, "사람이 돼지 똥오줌 방에서 10년 … 이주노동자 숨져간 이곳", 한겨레, ~ (2023)
- 태국 SNS 1위 “#한국방문금지” … 공항에서 태국인을 막는다고?, "MBC 뉴스", 2023
- 10월 주재국 문화․관광․체육․한류 동향보고, "해외문화홍보원", 문화체육관광부 해외문화홍보원, ~ (2023)
- Alderman, Petra, "Thailand’s Prospects for Democracy Blocked by the Junta-Appointed Senate", Australian Outlook, ~
- Asian Development Outlook, "Asian Development Bank", ~ (2023)
- Apisitniran, Lamonphet, "Thai retirement age could be increased", Bangkok Post, ~ (2023)
- Bangprapa, Mongkol, "I’ll be back, says Thaksin, taking a dig at the PM", Bangkok Post, ~ (2022)
- Monetary Policy Report, "Bank of Thailand", ~ (2023)
- Press Release on the Economic and Monetary Conditions for September and the Third Quarter of 2023, "Bank of Thailand", ~ (2023)
- Thailand’s economy faces headwinds from manufacturing sector down, "Biswas, Rajiv", S&P Global Market Intelligence, ~ (2023)
- "BBC Thai", 2023
- "BBC Thai", 2023
- An End to the Three Generals Era and a New Beginning for Thai Democracy, "Chalermpalanupap, Termsak", 1~11, pp.ISEAS Perspective Issue 2023 no. 14 (2023)
- What’s Interesting about the Thai General Election is not Who Wins but What Comes After, "Chalermpalanupap, Termsak", 1~11, pp.ISEAS Perspective Issue 2023 no. 24 (2023)
- Move Forward Party Has Won the Election, but May Lose the Premiership Race, "Chalermpalanupap, Termsak", 1~10, pp.ISEAS Perspective. Issue 2023 no. 43 (2023)
- Thailand’s New Prime Minister: Srettha Thavisin, "Chatuchinda, Sky", Friedrich Naumann Foundation, ~ (2023)
- Chongkittavorn, Kavi, "Thai-Saudi ties’ wider strategic impact", Bangkok Post, ~ (2023)
- US protectionism is a flawed strategy, "Dollar, David", East Asia Forum, ~ (2023)
- Duangdee, Vijitra, "Thaksin’s Return Set to Heat Up Politics", VOA News, ~ (2023)
- Economist, "Poor Asian countries face an ageing crisis", ~ (2023)
- (2023)[URL]
- Foreign Office, The Government Public Relations Department, "China and Thailand committed to improving bilateral ties", News Room, ~ (2023)
- Foreign Office, The Government Public Relations Department, "Thailand’s Foreign Minister leads delegation to Saudi Arabia to strengthen relations", News Room, ~ (2023)
- Foreign Office, The Government Public Relations Department, "Thailand declares its intent to run for UNHRC in 2025-2027", News Room, ~ (2023)
- Foreign Office, The Government Public Relations Department, "Thailand and China to speed up talks about visa-free policy", News Room, ~ (2023)
- Foreign Office, The Government Public Relations Department, "Thailand aims to attract 8.5 million Chinese tourists in 2024", News Room, ~ (2023)
- Foreign Office, The Government Public Relations Department, "Forging Partnerships between Thailand and Saudi Arabia", News Room, ~ (2023)
- Head, Jonathan, "Royal prodigal son’s return stirs up Thailand", BBC, ~ (2023)
- Johjit, Krajangwit, "Move Forward Party to Submit 45 Bills for Amendments and New Laws", National News Bureau of Thailand, ~ (2023)
- Jory, Patrick, "Will Thailand’s conservatives finally make peace with Thaksin?", Financial Review, ~
- Kasemsuk, Narumon, "Thai tourists turn against South Korea", Bangkok Post, ~ (2023)
- Khaosod English, "Thailand Strengthens ties with Saudi Arabia in All Dimensions", Khaosod English, ~ (2023)
- Kim, Max, "A family in Thailand awaits word on hostage in Gaza", Los Angeles Times, ~ (2023)
- Languepin, Olivier, "World Bank trims Thai growth to 3.4% in 2023, 3.5% in 2024", Thailand Business News, ~ (2023)
- Lertpusit, Sivarin, "Time to Tackle Illegal Foreign Businesses in Thailand", Fulcrum, ~ (2023)
- "Sondhi Talk", 2023
- "The Standard", 2023
- Mati, Amine, "Saudi Arabia’s Economy Grows as it Diversifies", IMF Country Focus, ~ (2023)
- Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, "Wang Yi Meets with Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara", Top Stories, ~ (2023)
- Montesano, Michael J., "Pheu Thai’s New Coalition Betrays the Faith of Voters", Fulcrum, ~ (2023)
- Natalegawa, Andreyka, "Promise and Peril in the U.S.-Thailand Alliance", Center for Strategic and International Studies, ~ (2023)
- Thai Economic Performance in Q1 of 2023 and the Outlook for 2023, "Office of National Economic and Social Development Council", ~ (2023)
- Thai Economic Performance in Q2 of 2023 and the Outlook for 2023, "Office of National Economic and Social Development Council", ~ (2023)
- Thai Economic Performance in Q3 of 2023 and the Outlook for 2023-2024, "Office of National Economic and Social Development Council", ~ (2023)
- Social Development Report, "Office of National Economic and Social Development Council", ~ (2023)
- Online Reporters and News Agencies, "MFP ordered to drop plans to amend lese majeste law", Bangkok Post, ~ (2024)
- PISA 2022 Results: Factsheets Thailand, "Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development", ~ (2022)
- Pananond, Pavida, "Business is out of patience with Thailand’s political mess", Nikkei Asia, ~ (2023)
- Poonkham, Jittipat, "Thailand’s Foreign Policy: Hedging by Default?", RSIS Commentary. No. 38, ~ (2023)
- Poonkham, Jittipat, "Thailand’s Indo-Pacific Adrift? A Reluctant Realignment with the United States and China", Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, 7(1), pp.82~96 (2024)
- "Prachatai", 2023
- Rattanataymee, Watcharin, "Changing Thailand: New Ideology, Old Politics", The Diplomat, ~ (2023)
- S&P Global, "S&P Global Thailand Manufacturing PMIT®: Manufacturing sector contracts amid fall in new orders", News Release, ~ (2023)
- Sirivunnabood, Punchada, "Pheu Thai at the Crossroads: Navigating Thailand’s Senate-Driven Hung Parliament", Fulcrum, ~ (2023)
- Sriring, Orathai, "Thai Q2 GDP growth slows sharply amid weak global demand, govt cuts outlook", Reuters, ~ (2023)
- Sriring, Orathai, "After limbo, Thailand’s new prime minister faces weakened economy", Reuters, ~ (2023)
- Tan, Clement, "World Bank downgrades developing East Asia growth forecast, weighted by a slowing China", CNBC News, ~ (2023)
- (2023)[URL]
- The Nation, "Pheu Thai opts not to counter Jatuporn’s damaging allegations", The Nation, ~ (2023)
- The Nation, "Thailand ranks second in the world for most Tweets about K-Content in 2022", ~ (2022)
- The Nation, "Thai and Korean netizens clash after #BanKorea trends on X", ~ (2023)
- The Nation, "Prayut Chan-o-cha appointed as a privy councilor", ~ (2023)
- (2023)[URL]
- Tonsakulrungruang, Khemthong, "A coup by any other name", New Mandala, ~ (2023)
- Turton, Shaun, "How Thai workers became integral to Israel’s economy", Financial Times, ~ (2023)
- Watcharasakwej, Wilawan, "Thailand just chose a prime minister. He’s not the one people voted for", Washington Post, ~ (2023)
- Wee, Sui-Lee, "Thai Parliament Picks Real Estate Mogul as Next Prime Minister", New York Times, ~ (2023)
- Wheeler, Matthew, "Thai Establishment Thwarts Popular Will with Post-election Moves", International Crisis Group, ~ (2023)
- White, Edward, "Asia faces one of worst economic outlooks in half a century, World Bank warns", Financial Times, ~ (2023)
- World Bank Group, "Thailand Public Revenue and Spending Assessment: Promoting an Inclusive and Sustainable Future, Executive Summary", ~ (2023)
- World Bank Group, "Thailand Economic Monitor. Building a Resilient Future: Coping with Droughts and Floods", ~ (2023)
- Yarrow, Richard, "Thailand’s Exposure to Northeast Asia’s Slowdowns", Fulcrum, ~ (2023)