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태국 2022: 위기가 가지고 온 변화의 기회

Thailand 2022: The Chances of Change Created by Crises

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한국동남아학회|2023.02|동남아시아연구 (The Southeast Asian Review)|제33권 제1호|pp. 233-279|DOI 10.21652/kaseas.33.1.202302.233

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참고문헌

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보조금최저임금인플레이션inflationsubsidyminimum wage총선조용한 외교대나무 외교Prayut Chan-o-cha쁘라윳치나왓Shinawatraquiet diplomacybamboo diplomacy
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초록

팬데믹이 3년 차에 접어들고 군부정권의 집권이 8년 차에 들어선 가운데 2022년 한 해 동안 위기가 만들어 낸 변화의 조짐들이 보였다. 쁘라윳 짠오차 총리는 다섯 번째 불신임 위기를 맞았고, 그를 지지해왔던 보수 우파 세력은 분열되기 시작했다. 2014년 쿠데타 이후 끊임없이 반군부 민주화 운동에 앞장서 왔던 밀레니얼과 Z세대 운동가들은 정치 세력화에 성공하고, 2023년 5월 총선에서 광범위한 세대교체를 준비하고 있다. 2022년 전 세계적인 해외여행 규제의 완화로 태국의 관광업이 살아나고, 이는 곧 실업률 저하와 민간 소비 회복으로 이어졌다. 관광업과 수출 중심의 제조업에 의존해왔던 태국이 경제 침체를 겪으며 디지털 인프라 강화, 녹색 및 저탄소 생산업 증대, 노동시장의 개선 등에 눈을 돌리기 시작한 것은 위기가 만들어 낸 또 다른 변화의 조짐이다. 미얀마의 위기에 소극적으로 대응하고, 주요 정상회의에서도 뚜렷한 성과를 내지 못해 태국의 외교적 영향력에 대한 의문이 커졌다. 예전의 경제적, 외교적 위상을 회복하기 위해서는 국내외의 정치적 혼란을 능동적으로 해결하고, 청년세대와 서민층의 개혁 요구를 적극적으로 받아들여야 할 것이다.

Abstract

In the third year of the global pandemic and the eighth year of the military regime’s authoritarian rule in Thailand, signs of change generated by the crises emerged in 2022. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha survived the fifth court case against him in September while the conservative right-wing elites that had supported Prayut’s regime began to split, reducing the possibility of power consolidation among them. On the other hand, millennials and Gen Z activists that have arduously led the anti-military democratization movements since the 2014 coup succeeded in entering the political arena, augmenting the progressive political parties’ influence and popular base. The latter group is now preparing for a generational shift in politics through the general election in 2023. Easing the travel restrictions across the globe in 2022 helped revive the tourism industry in Thailand, reducing the unemployment rate and recovering private consumption and investment levels. The three-year economic recession under the pandemic left a lesson to Thailand which heavily relied on tourism and export-oriented manufacturing. The signs of change emerged when the Thai economic sectors started looking into the possibility of developing digital infrastructure, a green and low-carbon production base and improving labor conditions, especially through the increase in the minimum wage. Although the unstable international economic conditions shall continue, the Thai economy may well recover to the pre-pandemic level in 2023. Passive responses to the crisis in Myanmar and the failure to produce visible impacts from the regional summit convinced the international observers of Thailand's declining diplomatic power and regional leadership role. To restore the previous economic and diplomatic leadership on the regional stage, Thailand shall proactively resolve the domestic and external crises and integrate the demands for reform from the young generations and the working class.

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