미얀마 2023: 궁지에 몰린 군부와 저항 세력의 반격

Abstract

Myanmar’s military government once again extended the state of emergency on January 31, 2023. This violates the 2008 constitution enacted by the military, which only allows two extension of six months each time. But even after that, the military arbitrarily interpreted the constitutional provisions and extended the emergency rule two more times. Accordingly, the general election, scheduled on August 2023, was postponed to one year later. The military’s unwillingness to lift the state of emergency reflects a sense of political crisis caused by the situation of resistance movement continuing for three years. The general election must be the only way for the military to secure political legitimacy, even though it is just a formality. Therefore, the military put efforts to win the election by changing the election system to proportional representation system in 2022, and dissolving 40 political parties, including the NLD by enacting the Political Parties Registration Law in 2023. Meanwhile, the Myanmar economy is in jeopardy due to the military government's anachronistic economic policy. In addition, the overall economy of Myanmar has been severely exacerbated by the sharp decline in the value of the currency caused by deepening political instability, that resulted in intensifying inflation and rising price of consumer goods and raw material. The prolonged civil war was one of the factors that worsened the situation. In particular, the ‘Operation 1027’, which began in northern Shan State, had a significant impact on border trade, which accounts for 40% of Myanmar's total trade. The ‘Operation 1027’ revealed that the military was facing a crisis not only politically and economically but also militarily, suggesting that the anti-military movement may reach a new turning point. While giving a new hope, the Operation 1027 also exposes various difficulties and challenges that the “Spring Revolution” forces will face in the future. First of all, the relationship between the Three Brotherhood Alliance leading the operation and China, and the way China has long used Myanmar's conflict dynamics for its own benefit, are expected to be important variables in the civil war. Another challenge is to make political consensus to build a new state. In addition, it is not easy to agree on the shape of a state that guarantees equality and autonomy for numerous ethnic groups in Myanmar. Finally, it must be a tough political process to make a united position of the “Spring Revolution” forces, a loose alliance of various groups.