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미얀마 군부의 외교정책 변화 수준과 전망:중국과 러시아 사이에서

Changing Level of Diplomacy and Prospect of the Myanmar Military Junta’s Foreign Policy:Between China and Russia

장준영
한국동남아학회|2023.11|동남아시아연구 (The Southeast Asian Review)|제33권 제4호|pp. 43-83

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중국러시아RussiaChinaMyanmarforeign policy외교정책미얀마military junta군사평의회
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초록

이 글의 목적은 중국과 러시아를 둔 미얀마 군부의 외교정책 변화 수준을 검증하고, 이를 바탕으로 두 국가를 중심으로 한 군부의 외교를 전망하는 것이다. 이를 위해 2017년 로힝자족 학살사태와 2021년 쿠데타를 외교정책의 변화를 유인한 결정적 사례로 선정했다. 두 사례는 모두 외부의 영향이 없는 진공상태에서 발생한 국내 사건이지만, 사건 발생 이후의 외부 충격은 미얀마 외교정책의 변화에 직접적 영향을 미쳤다. 2017년 로힝자족 사태 당시 아웅산수찌 정부는 미얀마 외교에서 금기시되는 외국인에 대한 의존, 국내외 여론에 적극적으로 대응하지 못한 이중적 태도로 국제사회의 고립을 자처했다. 이 사태 이후 정부는 친중화되었으나 외교의 독립 행위자로서 군부는 중국을 대체할 국가로 러시아를 선택했다. 실제로 2021년 쿠데타 이후 군사평의회는 러시아에 밀착하는 행보를 보인다. 러시아도 2000년대부터 추진한 동남아 진출 전략의 일환으로 미얀마와 관계 강화를 추진하고 있다. 그러나 양국은 지정 및 지경학적 측면에서 중국을 대체할 수 없는 태생적 한계에 봉착해 있다. 러시아가 우크라이나와의 전쟁에서 패배하거나 단기적으로 양국 관계의 성과가 목도되지 않는 이상 미얀마의 외교정책은 다시 중국을 우선시하는 방향으로 전환할 가능성이 크다. 따라서 쿠데타 이후 미얀마 외교정책은 중국 일변도에서 러시아로 전환하는 외교 대상의 세분화와 같은 양적인 변화가 감지되지만, 수행 작업과 방법, 그리고 목적 등은 변하지 않는 조정 변화의 기조를 유지한다.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to prospect the Myanmar military junta’s foreign policy focusing on China and Russia, on verifying the change level of the foreign policy toward the two countries. To do this, the Rohingya massacre in 2017 and the military coup in 2021 were chosen as crucial cases that induced changes in foreign policy. Both cases were only domestic incidents without external impact, but the post management on the two incidents directly affected changes in Myanmar’s foreign policy. After the Rohingya massacre in 2017, Aung San Suu Kyi government was eventually isolated from the international community due to its ambiguous attitude on domestic and foreign critique and reliance on foreigners which is a kind of taboo in Myanmar diplomacy practice. Furthermore, the Aung San Suu Kyi government was closer to China after this incident, but the military, as an independent agent of diplomacy, considered Russia as the country to replace China in terms of foreign policy. As matter of fact, the military junta has taken a close approach to Russia after the military coup in 2021. Russia is also pushing to strengthen relations with Myanmar in an attempt to its strategy to enter Southeast Asia since 2000s. However, the two countries are facing inherent limitations that cannot replace China in terms of geopolitical and geo-economic aspects. Unless Russia loses its war with Ukraine or the results of bilateral relations of Myanmar and Russia are not successful in the short period, foreign policy of Myanmar’s military junta is likely to return to China. Therefore, Myanmar’s foreign policy maintains a stance of “adjustment change” that does not change in its work, method, and purpose, although quantitative changes are detected, such as the segmentation of diplomatic targets from China to Russia since the coup.

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