로힝자족 문제와 국제관계의 동학: 이해당사국의 대응과 국가이익
Dynamics of the International Relations on the Rohingya Conundrum: Response and National Interests of the Myanmar's Neighboring Countries
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이 글의 목적은 2012년부터 발생한 미얀마 로힝자족의 수난에 대한 중국, 인도, 아세안 등 미얀마 주변국의 입장과 대응전략을 비교 분석하고, 이를 통해 주변국이 추구하려는 국가이익의 실체를 규명하는 것이다. 특히 2017년 미얀마 군부가 테러리스트들을 소탕한다는 명분으로 로힝자족을 공격하여 대규모 피난민이 발생하자 서방세계와 달리 미얀마 주변국은 사태의 본질을 객관적으로 인식하고 문제 해결에 적극적이라기보다 미얀마 정부를 옹호하는 자세를 취한다. 세 국가는 가치 지향적인 서방세계와 달리 국가안보와 경제적 번영에 국익의 우선순위를 부여하는 현실 지향적 전략을 추진한다. 또한 로힝자족 문제가 주변국의 주권이나 안보에 심각한 위협을 가하지 않으므로 국가이익의 우선순위도 주로 핵심적 이익과 중요한 이익으로 나타났다. 중국이 철저하게 경제적 번영을 추구하기 위한 도구로서 로힝자족 문제에 개입한다면, 아세안은 잠재적으로 발생할 수 있는 안보위기를 방지하는 차원에서 소극적인 행보를 보였다. 인도는 양국의 중간적 입장으로서 경제적으로 동진정책의 성공과 안보적으로 로힝자족과 무슬림 과격단체와의 연대 가능성을 봉쇄하는 전략으로 대응한다. 결론적으로 주변국들이 로힝자족 문제 해결을 빌미로 국가이익을 우선시하는 전략을 추구함에 따라 주변국이 주도하여 이 문제를 해결할 가능성은 적어 보인다.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to compare and analyze the positions and strategies of Myanmar's neighboring countries, including China, India and ASEAN, on the sufferings of Myanmar's Rohingya that have taken place since 2012, and to identify the essentials of the national interests of neighboring countries. In particular, when Myanmar's military attacked the Rohingya in order to wiping out terrorists in August 2017, Myanmar's neighbors are supportive of the Myanmar government rather than trying to solve the conundrum with the objectively position. The three countries, unlike the value-oriented West countries, pursue a reality-oriented strategy that gives priority to national security and economic prosperity. In addition, the priority of the national interests of neighboring countries are mainly vital interest and major interest each, as the Rohingya conundrum does not threaten the sovereignty and national security of the neighboring countries. China has intervened the Rohingya issue in order to pursuing economic prosperity, but ASEAN has taken a passive step to prevent a potential security crisis on it. India's response is in the middle of the two sides, pursuing the success of its Act East Policy(AEP) economically and the blocking the possibility of a alliance with the Rohingya and Muslim extremist groups. In conclusion, it seems unlikely that the neighboring countries will take the initiative to solve the Rohingya conundrum because those only pursue national interests on the process of intervene not showing their authenticity.
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