COVID-19 이후 우리나라 항공시장 회복과정 연구

Abstract

COVID-19 is having a serious impact on the global economy, seriously affecting the aviation industry after declaring pandemic worldwide by WHO. In the face of the rapidly growing COVID-19 pandemic, the global aviation industry are trying to minimize and to overcome the impact of COVID-19. Depending on the effective control of the spread of COVID-19, the recovery process of the aviation market can be reacted by various types. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for making an appropriate strategic response. Although ICAO, IATA, and some researches have tried to analyze the market impact on the global aviation industry, it is very difficult to predict the future recovery process of the aviation market due to the uncertainty on the effective control of COVID-19. In this paper, we focus on the analysis of the recovery process for air travel passengers in Korea in the post COVID-19 era. Using a system dynamics model, we develop the air travel passenger recovery model for the post COVID-19 in Korea. For an empirical analysis, With some scenarios on the uncertain air travel market for the post COVID-19 era, which are based on the survey by AMSOK, we analyze the recovery process on the air passengers for the domestic and the international flights in Korea. According to the analysis, we can find the recovery from the impact of COVID-19 will be in a year for the domestic market, but for the international market it will be lasting for more than 2 years. Even though, our research predict the recovery process for the uncertain future air travel market, it will provide some implications for overcoming the difficulty on the aviation industry. We hope this study will be useful for expanding various studies on the impact of the COVID-19 in the aviation industry.