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탄소중립과 대기질 개선 정책이 동아시아 근 미래 기후변화에 미치는 영향

Impacts of Carbon Neutrality and Air Quality Control on Near-term Climate Change in East Asia

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주제분류대기과학

초록

This study investigates the impacts of carbon neutrality and air quality control policieson near-term climate change in East Asia, by examining three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs) scenarios from five climate models. Specifically, low carbon and strong air qualitycontrol scenario (SSP1-1.9), high carbon and weak air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0), andhigh carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) are compared. Forthese scenarios, the near-term climate (2045-2054 average) changes are evaluated for surface airtemperature (SAT), hot temperature extreme intensity (TXx), and hot temperature extreme frequency(TX90p). In all three scenarios, SAT, TXx, and TX90p are projected to increase in EastAsia, while carbon neutrality reduces the increasing rate of SAT and hot temperature extremes. Air quality control strengthens the warming rate. These opposed mitigation effects are robustlyforced in all model simulations. Nonetheless, the impact of carbon neutrality overcomes theimpact of air quality control. These results suggest that fast carbon neutrality, more effectivethan an air quality control policy, is necessary to slowdown future warming trend in East Asia.

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of carbon neutrality and air quality control policieson near-term climate change in East Asia, by examining three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs) scenarios from five climate models. Specifically, low carbon and strong air qualitycontrol scenario (SSP1-1.9), high carbon and weak air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0), andhigh carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) are compared. Forthese scenarios, the near-term climate (2045-2054 average) changes are evaluated for surface airtemperature (SAT), hot temperature extreme intensity (TXx), and hot temperature extreme frequency(TX90p). In all three scenarios, SAT, TXx, and TX90p are projected to increase in EastAsia, while carbon neutrality reduces the increasing rate of SAT and hot temperature extremes. Air quality control strengthens the warming rate. These opposed mitigation effects are robustlyforced in all model simulations. Nonetheless, the impact of carbon neutrality overcomes theimpact of air quality control. These results suggest that fast carbon neutrality, more effectivethan an air quality control policy, is necessary to slowdown future warming trend in East Asia.

참고문헌 (48)

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