SSP 시나리오에 따른 동아시아 대기질 미래 전망
Impact of Future Air Quality in East Asia under SSP Scenarios
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This study investigates the change in the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and World Health Organization (WHO) air quality index (AQI) in East Asia (EA) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). AQI is an indicator of increasing levels about health concern, divided into six categories based on PM2.5 annual concentrations. Here, we utilized the ensemble results of UKESM1, the climate model operated in Met Office, UK, for the analysis of long-term variation during the historical (1950~2014) and future (2015~2100) period. The results show that the spatial distributions of simulated PM2.5 concentrations in present-day (1995~2014) are comparable to observations. It is found that most regions in EA exceeded the WHO air quality guideline except for Japan, Mongolia regions, and the far seas during the historical period. In future scenarios containing strong air quality (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air quality (SSP2-4.5) controls, PM2.5 concentrations are substantially reduced, resulting in significant improvement in AQI until the mid-21st century. On the other hand, the mild air pollution controls in SSP3-7.0 tend to lead poor AQI in China and Korea. This study also examines impact of increased in PM2.5 concentrations on downward shortwave energy at the surface. As a result, strong air pollution controls can improve air quality through reduced PM2.5 concentrations, but lead to an additional warming in both the near and mid-term future climate over EA.
Abstract
This study investigates the change in the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and World Health Organization (WHO) air quality index (AQI) in East Asia (EA) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). AQI is an indicator of increasing levels about health concern, divided into six categories based on PM2.5 annual concentrations. Here, we utilized the ensemble results of UKESM1, the climate model operated in Met Office, UK, for the analysis of long-term variation during the historical (1950~2014) and future (2015~2100) period. The results show that the spatial distributions of simulated PM2.5 concentrations in present-day (1995~2014) are comparable to observations. It is found that most regions in EA exceeded the WHO air quality guideline except for Japan, Mongolia regions, and the far seas during the historical period. In future scenarios containing strong air quality (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air quality (SSP2-4.5) controls, PM2.5 concentrations are substantially reduced, resulting in significant improvement in AQI until the mid-21st century. On the other hand, the mild air pollution controls in SSP3-7.0 tend to lead poor AQI in China and Korea. This study also examines impact of increased in PM2.5 concentrations on downward shortwave energy at the surface. As a result, strong air pollution controls can improve air quality through reduced PM2.5 concentrations, but lead to an additional warming in both the near and mid-term future climate over EA.
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