1.5/2.0℃ 지구온난화 시나리오 기반의 동아시아 기후변화 분석
Understanding Climate Change over East Asia under Stabilized 1.5 and 2.0℃ Global Warming Scenarios
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초록
This study first investigates the changes of the mean and extreme temperatures and precipitation in East Asia (EA) under stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warming conditions above preindustrial levels provided by HAPPI project. Here, five model with 925 members for 10-year historical period (2006~2015) and 1.5/2.0oC future warming scenarios (2091~2100) have been used and monthly based data have been analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution fields over EA and domain averaged variables in HAPPI 1.5/2.0oC hindcast simulations are comparable to observations. It is found that the magnitude of mean temperature warming in EA and Korea is similar to the global mean, but for extreme temperatures local higher warming trend for minimum temperature is significant. In terms of precipitation, most subregion in EA will see more increased precipitation under 1.5/2.0oC warming compared to the global mean. These attribute for probability density function of analyzed variables to get wider with increasing mean values in 1.5/2.0oC warming conditions. As the result of vulnerability of 0.5oC additional warming from 1.5 to 2.0oC, 0.5oC additional warming contributes to the increases in extreme events and especially the impact over South Korea is slightly larger than EA. Therefore, limiting global warming by 0.5oC can help avoid the increases in extreme temperature and precipitation events in terms of intensity and frequency.
Abstract
This study first investigates the changes of the mean and extreme temperatures and precipitation in East Asia (EA) under stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warming conditions above preindustrial levels provided by HAPPI project. Here, five model with 925 members for 10-year historical period (2006~2015) and 1.5/2.0oC future warming scenarios (2091~2100) have been used and monthly based data have been analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution fields over EA and domain averaged variables in HAPPI 1.5/2.0oC hindcast simulations are comparable to observations. It is found that the magnitude of mean temperature warming in EA and Korea is similar to the global mean, but for extreme temperatures local higher warming trend for minimum temperature is significant. In terms of precipitation, most subregion in EA will see more increased precipitation under 1.5/2.0oC warming compared to the global mean. These attribute for probability density function of analyzed variables to get wider with increasing mean values in 1.5/2.0oC warming conditions. As the result of vulnerability of 0.5oC additional warming from 1.5 to 2.0oC, 0.5oC additional warming contributes to the increases in extreme events and especially the impact over South Korea is slightly larger than EA. Therefore, limiting global warming by 0.5oC can help avoid the increases in extreme temperature and precipitation events in terms of intensity and frequency.
참고문헌 (17)
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