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RCP 시나리오 기반 WRF를 이용한 CORDEX-동아시아 2단계 지역의 가까운 미래 극한기온 변화 전망

Near Future Projection of Extreme Temperature over CORDEX-East Asia Phase 2 Region Using the WRF Model Based on RCP Scenarios

최연우|안중배|서가영
한국기상학회 (Korean Meteorological Society)|2019.12|대기 (Atmosphere)|제29권 제5호|pp. 585-597|DOI 10.14191/Atmos.2019.29.5.585

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키워드

RCP Scenariosclimate changeWRFCORDEX-East Asia Phase 2extreme temperature
주제분류대기과학

초록

This study evaluates the performance of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating temperature over the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment- East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase 2 domain for the reference period (1981~2005), and assesses the changes in temperature and its extremes in the mid-21st century (2026~2050) under global warming based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. MPI-ESMLR forced by two RCP scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) is used as initial and lateral boundary conditions. Overall, WRF can capture the observed features of temperature distribution reflecting local topographic characteristic, despite some disagreement between the observed and simulated patterns. Basically, WRF shows a systematic cold bias in daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature over the entire domain. According to the future projections, summer and winter mean temperatures over East Asia will significantly increase in the mid-21st century. The mean temperature rise is expected to be greater in winter than in summer. In accordance with these results, summer (winter) is projected to begin earlier (later) in the future compared to the historical period. Furthermore, a rise in extreme temperatures shows a tendency to be greater in the future. The averages of daily minimum and maximum temperatures above 90 percentiles are likely to be intensified in the high-latitude, while hot days and hot nights tend to be more frequent in the low-latitude in the mid-21st century. Especially, East Asia would be suffered from strong increases in nocturnal temperature under future global warming.

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating temperature over the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment- East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase 2 domain for the reference period (1981~2005), and assesses the changes in temperature and its extremes in the mid-21st century (2026~2050) under global warming based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. MPI-ESMLR forced by two RCP scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) is used as initial and lateral boundary conditions. Overall, WRF can capture the observed features of temperature distribution reflecting local topographic characteristic, despite some disagreement between the observed and simulated patterns. Basically, WRF shows a systematic cold bias in daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature over the entire domain. According to the future projections, summer and winter mean temperatures over East Asia will significantly increase in the mid-21st century. The mean temperature rise is expected to be greater in winter than in summer. In accordance with these results, summer (winter) is projected to begin earlier (later) in the future compared to the historical period. Furthermore, a rise in extreme temperatures shows a tendency to be greater in the future. The averages of daily minimum and maximum temperatures above 90 percentiles are likely to be intensified in the high-latitude, while hot days and hot nights tend to be more frequent in the low-latitude in the mid-21st century. Especially, East Asia would be suffered from strong increases in nocturnal temperature under future global warming.

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