기후리스크 시나리오 도출을 위한 탄소중립의 경제적 효과에 관한 연구
A Study on the Economic Effect of Carbon Neutralization to Derive Climate Risk Scenario
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본 연구는 국내 금융권의 기후리스크 측정을 위한 시나리오를 도출하기 위해 GDP 영향을 중심으로 탄소중립 정책의 경제적 효과를 추정하였다. 이를 위해 우리나라 뿐 아니라, 전 세계 184개국의 탄소중립 정책을 조사하였으며, 통합평가모형인 RICE 모형에 기반하여 국가군에 대한민국을 별도로 추가하는 형태의 새로운 연구모형을 활용하였다. 추정 결과, 탄소중립 정책으로 인해 우리나라의 GDP는 2050년 BaU 시나리오 대비 2.23% 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 미국, 중국 등 주요국들의 경제적 피해와 유사한 수준으로 확인되었다. 본 연구결과는 우리 정부의 탄소중립 정책 발표 이후 최초로 시도된 경제적 영향 관련 연구이며, 국내 금융권의 기후리스크 시나리오로서 활용될 수 있다. 다만, 본 연구결과는 기후변화 및 탄소중립 추진 정책과 관련된 광범위한 불확실성을 감안하면 정확한 전망보다는, 합리적 추정치로 활용하는 것이 적절하다.
Abstract
This study estimated the economic effects of the carbon neutrality policy centering on the GDP impact to derive climate risk scenarios for climate risk measurement in the domestic financial sectors. To this end, carbon neutrality policies of 184 countries not only in Korea but also around the world were investigated, and a new research model was used in the form of adding Korea separately to the national group based on the RICE model, a type of integrated assessment models. As a result of the estimation, it was found that Korea's GDP decreased by 2.23% compared to the BaU scenario in 2050. This was identified to be similar to the economic damage of major countries such as the United States and China. This is the first research related to economic impact since the announcement of the Korean government's carbon neutrality policy and can be used as climate risk scenarios for financial institutions. However, considering the widespread uncertainty related to climate change and carbon neutrality policies, it is appropriate to use the result of this study as a reasonable estimate rather than an accurate forecast.
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